000 AXPZ20 KNHC 150355 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Dec 15 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Building high pressure over eastern Mexico and into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico continues to support strong to near-gale force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec this evening. Peak seas near 10 ft are likely occurring in the area of strongest winds. High pressure will strengthen overnight, prompting a brief period of gale force winds late tonight through Sun morning. Seas will increase to near 12 ft in response to the gale force winds. Winds will diminish slightly on Sun, then expect N winds to pulse fresh to strong across the region through the end of next week, with significant winds and seas remaining N of 13N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N75W to 08.5N83W to 05N92W. The ITCZ then continues from 05N92W to 07.5N125W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 08N to 12N west of 130W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information regarding the Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. High pressure west of the Baja offshore waters earlier today has begun to collapse in advance of a weak front approaching the area waters. Meanwhile, surface troughing prevails over northwestern Mexico. This pattern is supporting moderate to locally fresh N to NW winds over central and southern portions of the Gulf of California southward to Las Tres Marias, while moderate N to NE winds prevail offshore of Baja California. Seas in the Gulf of California have built to 3 to 5 ft. Seas of 6 to 8 ft prevail across the waters from Punta Eugenia to the Revillagigedo Islands, while new NW swell entering the regional waters tonight is producing seas 8 to 10 ft north of Punta Eugenia. Farther south and offshore of southwestern Mexico, light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, away from gale force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, high pressure over the eastern Pacific will build modestly this weekend as a series of cold fronts pass to the north of the region, and troughing prevails over northwestern Mexico. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the first cold front just northwest of the area this evening will continue to support fresh NW winds through the Gulf of California this weekend, and fresh winds will develop offshore of Baja this evening into Mon. Locally strong winds are expected surrounding Punta Eugenia and in the central Gulf of California on Sun as the cold front approaches the northern waters. Rough seas associated with a long-period NW swell will propagate southward this weekend, producing rough seas over 8 ft as far south as 20N by this evening, and north of 17N by Sun morning. Reinforced NW swell will move across all of the waters offshore of Baja early Sun through the beginning of next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong NE winds are occurring across the Papagayo region as a strong high pressure ridge prevails over the southeastern United States and extends into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Seas 6 to 8 ft are likely in this area. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds are noted in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, away from the pulsing gap winds, gentle to moderate NE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail. South of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate S to SW winds and moderate seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted. For the forecast, strong NE winds will continue across the Papagayo region through Sun morning as a strong high pressure ridge continues to extend into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Winds will then pulse fresh to locally strong speeds each night Sun night through at least the middle of next week. Moderate N winds are expected to pulse to locally fresh in the Gulf of Panama each night through the middle of next week as low pressure persists near the coast of Colombia. Otherwise, gentle to moderate S to SW winds and moderate seas will prevail south of the monsoon trough, with gentle winds and slight seas occurring north of the trough, away from the gap winds. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak cold front can be seen in satellite imagery moving into the northern waters this evening, extending from 30N125W to 28N135W. High pressure ahead of the front this afternoon has collapsed, with a new 1023 mb high located behind the front near 30N136W. South of the front and weak W to E ridge, light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail to 22N. Seas are generally 7 to 9 ft, but with new NW swell moving in with the front, producing seas of 9 to 12 ft behind the front. South of the ridge, between 22N and the ITCZ, moderate to fresh NE trade winds prevail, where seas are 8 to 10 ft in NW swell, except to 11 ft W of 135W. South of the ITCZ, moderate SE winds prevail, with locally fresh SE winds noted west of 130W. For the forecast, a broad area of rough seas in mixed swell will continue to produce seas in excess of 8 ft across much of the open waters tonight, with the exception of areas south of 04N and east of 120W. Seas will continue to slowly subside E of 105W through tonight. Seas of around 11 ft and higher will continue across the western waters of the trade wind zone through early next week. The new NW swell enter the northern waters tonight will reinforce rough seas north of 23N into Sun. A series of cold fronts sweeping across the NE Pacific north of the area will continue to generate NW swell and reinforce seas in excess of 8 ft for most areas north of the ITCZ through the middle of next week. Fresh to locally strong trade winds will continue from north of the ITCZ to 20N, west of 120W through Mon night as the E to W ridge resides across the northern area waters. Farther east, moderate to locally fresh trade winds will continue north of the ITCZ to around 15N between 105W and 120W through the weekend. $$ Stripling