000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142153
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Dec 14 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Building high pressure over 
eastern Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico continues to 
support strong to near-gale force winds in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec today. Peak seas near 10 ft are likely occurring in 
the area of strongest winds. High pressure will strengthen 
overnight, prompting a brief period of gale force winds late 
tonight through Sun morning. Seas will increase to near 12 ft in
response to the gale force winds. Winds will diminish slightly 
on Sun, and N winds will then pulse fresh to strong across the 
region through the end of next week. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 06N92W. The ITCZ 
then continues from 06N92W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring from 08N to 10N west of 135W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information
regarding the Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

A 1025 mb high centered near 28N127W is building across the 
eastern Pacific, and troughing prevails over the Gulf of 
California. This pattern is supporting moderate to locally fresh 
N to NW winds over central and southern portions of the Gulf of 
California southward to offshore of Jalisco, and moderate N to NE
winds offshore of Baja California. Rough seas north of 23N
prevail offshore of Baja California, with peak seas near 10 ft 
west of 117W. Farther south offshore of southwestern Mexico, 
light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail. In the Gulf of 
California, seas of 2 to 4 ft are noted. 

For the forecast, away from gale force winds in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, high pressure over the eastern Pacific will build 
modestly this weekend as a series of cold fronts pass to the 
north of the region, and troughing prevails over northwestern 
Mexico. The tightening pressure gradient between the ridge and 
the first cold front northwest of the area will continue to 
support fresh NW winds through the Gulf of California this 
weekend, and fresh winds will develop offshore of Baja this 
evening into Mon. Locally strong winds will be possible at times 
surrounding Punta Eugenia and in the central Gulf of California 
on Sun as the cold front approaches the northern waters. Rough 
seas associated with a long-period NW swell will propagate 
southward this weekend, producing rough seas over 8 ft as far 
south as 20N by this evening, and north of 17N by Sun morning. 
Rough seas will be reinforced across all of the waters offshore 
of Baja early Sun through the beginning of next week as new 
moderate to large NW swell enters the waters. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong N to NE winds are occurring in the Gulf of 
Papagayo as high pressure prevails over the southeastern United 
States and low pressure persists in Colombia. Rough seas to 8 ft
are likely in this region. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE 
winds are noted in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere north of the 
monsoon trough, away from the pulsing gap winds, moderate NE 
winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail. Otherwise, south of the 
monsoon trough, gentle to moderate S to SW winds and moderate 
seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted. 

For the forecast, strong NE winds will continue in the Gulf of
Papagayo through Sun morning as high pressure in the 
southeastern United States and the Gulf of Mexico prevails, and 
low pressure persists near Colombia. Winds will then pulse to 
fresh to locally strong speeds each night Sun night through at 
least the middle of next week. Moderate to locally fresh N winds 
are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Panama each night through 
the middle of next week. Otherwise, gentle to moderate S to SW 
winds and moderate seas will prevail south of the monsoon trough,
with gentle winds and slight seas occurring north of the trough,
away from the gap winds. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1025 mb high extends across the northern waters north of 25N 
while a cold front moves into the far northwestern waters, 
extending from a low in northern California to 30N128W, with a 
stationary front continuing to 30N140W. Moderate to locally fresh
NW to N winds are occurring north of 29N ahead of this front. 
Otherwise, ridging is promoting gentle to moderate E to NE winds 
north of 20N, and moderate to fresh trades south of 20N to the 
ITCZ. Recent scatterometer satellite data show locally fresh 
winds occurring from 08N to 12N west of 120W. South of the ITCZ, 
moderate SE winds prevail, with locally fresh SE winds noted west
of 130W. A complex swell pattern, comprised of residual mixed 
seas south of 20N, new NW swell entering the northern waters, and
NE seas generated by recent gale force winds in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec mixing with NW swell are leading to a widespread seas
of 8 to 10 ft across much of the open waters of the Pacific, 
except for the area south of 04N and east of 120W where seas are 
around 6 ft. Locally higher seas to 11 ft in mixed NW and E swell
are noted between 07N and 12N west of 134W. Peak seas to 11 ft 
are also occurring in the far northern waters north of 29N, 
generated by the aforementioned cold front in the far 
northwestern waters.

For the forecast, the broad area of rough seas from multiple sets
of NW swell, trade wind-generated swell and swell from gap wind
events in Central America will continue to produce seas in 
excess of 8 ft across much of the open waters today, with the 
exception of areas south of 04N and east of 120W. Seas will 
continue to slowly subside E of 105W through tonight. Seas of 11
ft and higher will continue across the western waters of the 
trade wind zone through early next week. New NW swell will 
reinforce rough seas north of 23N into Sun. A series of cold 
fronts sweeping across the NE Pacific north of the area will 
continue to generate NW swell and reinforce seas in excess of 8 
ft for most areas north of the ITCZ through the middle of next 
week. Fresh to locally strong trade winds will continue from 
north of the ITCZ to 20N, west of 120W through Mon night as an E 
to W ridge resides across the northern area waters. Farther east,
moderate to locally fresh trade winds will continue north of the
ITCZ to around 15N between 105W and 120W through the weekend. 

$$
ADAMS