000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122206
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Dec 12 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tehuantepec Storm Warning: The most significant gap wind event
thus far of the season continues across the Gulf of Tehuantepec
today. Strong high pressure across eastern Mexico is building 
southward behind a stalling front stretching from central Cuba 
through northern Honduras and central Guatemala. This pattern is 
supporting gale-force N winds from the Tehuantepec coast to near 
15N, with strong to gale-force winds then extending 300 NM 
offshore of the coast. Seas likely range from 12 to 16 ft in the 
area of gales. Gales will continue into Fri morning, then strong 
to near-gale force winds will continue Fri afternoon through Mon 
morning as strong high pressure persists across the Gulf of 
Mexico and the NW Caribbean. Large swell of 8 ft and greater 
generated from this significant event will spread as far south as
06N by this evening, extending between the Papagayo region and 
107W. Significant winds and seas occurring this weekend across 
Tehuantepec are only expected to extend to around 240 NM 
offshore.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more 
information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 07N91W. The ITCZ 
then continues from 07N91W to 09N119W to beyond 07N140W. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring 
from 06N to 08N between 107W and 114W and from 06N to 11N west of
118W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
the Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning.

A trough has been analyzed over the Gulf of California and a
weakening cold front north of the area extends from the coast of
Southern California to 29N130W to 31N140W. Recent scatterometer 
satellite data show moderate NW winds occurring north of 24N and
west of 115W offshore of Baja California Norte, and isolated 
fresh winds are noted north of Punta Eugenia. A long-period NW 
swell is promoting seas to 8 ft north of 24N and west of 117W. 
Elsewhere, broad ridging extends over the rest of the Mexico 
offshore waters, supporting light to gentle winds and moderate 
seas of 5 to 7 ft. In the Gulf of California, light to gentle 
winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail. 

For the forecast, aside from gale force winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, a weakening cold front approaching from the 
northwest will produce moderate to locally fresh NW winds north 
of Punta Eugenia this afternoon and evening into Fri. Rough seas 
associated with the cold front will propagate southeastward on 
Fri, with rough seas occurring north of 27N by Fri evening, and 
north of 24N by Sat morning. Peak seas of 10 to 11 ft will be 
possible north of Punta Eugenia by Fri evening. High pressure 
will build modestly across the area waters this weekend in the 
wake of the cold front, and troughing will prevail in the Gulf of
California. As a result, moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds
will develop in the Gulf of California and off the coast of 
southwestern Mexico by early Sat, and across the waters offshore 
of Baja California Sat afternoon into early Sun. Looking ahead, a
fresh long-period NW swell will produce rough seas offshore of 
Baja California this weekend into early next week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Strong NE winds are occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo as a
stalling front lingers from central Cuba through northern 
Honduras and central Guatemala and high pressure builds over 
eastern Mexico. Rough seas to 8 to 9 ft in NE swell are likely 
in this area. Locally fresh N winds are also noted in the Gulf 
of Panama. Otherwise, moderate S to SE winds are occurring south 
of 04N offshore of Ecuador and Colombia, with light to gentle 
winds occurring elsewhere south of the monsoon trough. North of 
the trough away from strengthening gap winds, light to locally 
moderate winds prevail. Seas range from 4 to 6 ft in 
predominantly SW swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE gap winds will occur in the
Gulf of Papagayo through Sat morning as high pressure builds 
over eastern Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico, in the wake 
of a stalling front. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong speeds 
each night into early Mon, with moderate to fresh winds occurring
each night thereafter through at least the middle of next week.
Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong N winds and rough seas 
occurring along the eastern edge of a strong Tehuantepec gale- 
force wind event will impact the offshore waters of southwestern 
Guatemala through Fri, with associated NW swell spreading to 
offshore of Papagayo through this evening. Winds offshore of 
Guatemala will diminish late tonight with seas slowly subsiding 
through Fri. Moderate to fresh N winds will pulse across the 
western Gulf of Panama each night through this weekend. 
Otherwise, gentle to moderate S to SW winds and moderate seas 
will prevail south of the monsoon trough, with gentle winds and 
slight seas occurring north of the trough, away from the gap 
winds. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1026 mb high is centered northwest of the area near 32N134W,
and a weakening cold front extends from the coast of Southern 
California to 29N130W to 31N140W. Moderate to locally fresh N
winds are occurring along and behind the front. Otherwise, 
gentle to locally moderate anticyclonic winds are noted north of 
25N. South of 25N and west of 120W, moderate to fresh trades are
occurring north of the monsoon trough, with strong winds
occurring from 10N to 20N west of 130W. A broad swath of seas of
8 to 11 ft are occurring north of 01N and west of 118W as NW
swell combined with residual swell north of the ITCZ. To the
south of the ITCZ, moderate to fresh SE winds and seas of 6 to 9
ft prevail. 

For the forecast, the broad area of rough seas from NW swell and
trade wind-generated swell will continue to produce rough seas in
excess of 8 ft north of the equator and west of 115W through Fri.
Peak seas around 13 ft are expected in the far western waters 
between 10N and 20N west of 135W in the zone of strongest trade 
winds. Rough seas generated by gale-force winds in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec and Gulf of Papagayo will propagate westward over the
coming days, reaching areas north of 07N and east of 105W by 
this evening, and north of 05N by Fri morning. Rough seas from 
the aforementioned sources will combine in the central waters 
between 110W and 120W on Fri. Seas will slowly subside downwind 
of Tehuantepec this weekend, but residual rough seas will prevail
south of 20N and west of 110W. Additionally, a series of cold 
fronts moving north of the area will continue to generate and 
reinforce rough seas for most areas north of the ITCZ through the
middle of next week. Fresh to strong trades winds will continue 
from north of the ITCZ to 20N, west of 120W. Farther east, 
moderate to locally fresh trade winds will continue north of the 
ITCZ to around 15N between 105W and 120W. An E to W ridge will 
move into the area waters along about 27N over the weekend to 
maintain fresh trade winds from 20N to the ITCZ into early next 
week. 

$$
ADAMS