000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112227
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Dec 11 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tehuantepec Storm Warning: The most significant gap wind event
thus far of the season will occur across the Gulf of Tehuantepec
through Fri morning. A cold front stretches from the eastern Gulf
of Mexico through the Yucatan Peninsula and into southern Mexico,
and strong high pressure is building across northeastern Mexico
in the wake of the front. This pattern is supporting strong N
gales, and winds will briefly increase to storm-force this 
evening. Seas will quickly build to 18 to 22 ft by this evening. 
Gale-force winds and high seas are expected to extend to near 
300 NM from the Tehuantepec coast by this evening. Gales are 
then forecast to persist through late Thu evening. Winds will 
gradually diminish to strong to near-gale force strength late 
Thu night and continue to pulse through into the middle of next 
week.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more 
information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N75W to 10N88W to 
07N92W to 06.5N99W. The ITCZ then continues from 06.5N99W to 
beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 
07N to 09N between 115W and 119W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
the Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning.

A strong pressure gradient between a 1036 mb high over the Four
Corners region of the western U.S. and troughing along the 
Sierra Madre Occidentals of northwest Mexico is supporting strong
NW winds through the entire length of the Gulf of California and
seas of 10 to 12 ft. Recent scatterometer satellite data showed a
pocket of near-gale force winds across the central Gulf of
California between Santa Rosalia and La Paz. Fresh N winds also 
surround Cabo San Lucas, and are offshore of Cabo Corrientes.
Moderate to locally fresh NE winds occurring through the gaps of
the Baja Peninsula and adjacent waters are diminishing. Farther
south, weak ridging prevails off the coast of southwestern
Mexico, leading to light to gentle winds. Seas off the coast of
Baja California and southwestern Mexico range from 4 to 7 ft in
NW to W swell. 

For the forecast, aside from the storm-force winds developing
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a weakening pressure gradient 
between high pressure in the Great Basin of the United States and
troughing in northwestern Mexico will lead to diminishing winds
in the Gulf of California and offshore of Baja tonight into Thu.
A cold front moving through the eastern Pacific off the coast of
California will lead to moderate to locally fresh NW winds and 
rough seas north of Punta Eugenia Thu night into Fri. Looking 
ahead, high pressure building into the region from the NW this 
weekend will support moderate to locally fresh N to NW winds
across the Gulf of California, offshore of Baja California and
southwestern Mexico.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A tight pressure gradient between the Colombian low and a cold
front that stretches from the eastern Gulf of Mexico through the
Yucatan Peninsula is leading to fresh NE winds in the Gulf of 
Papagayo. Seas in this region are 5 to 6 ft. Otherwise, light to
moderate S to SW winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted south of 
the monsoon trough, with gentle to locally moderate winds 
occurring to the north. 

For the forecast, fresh NE gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo
will increase to strong this evening through Thu, then pulse to 
strong at night through Fri night, as a strong pressure gradient 
between the Colombian low and an approaching cold front in the
northwestern Caribbean prevails across the region. Strong winds 
and very rough seas along the eastern edge of a Tehuantepec 
storm-force wind event will impact the offshore waters of 
southwestern Guatemala tonight through early Fri, with associated
NW swell spreading to offshore of Papagayo by Thu afternoon. 
Winds offshore of Guatemala will diminish Thu night with seas 
slowly subsiding through Fri. Moderate to locally fresh N winds 
will also pulse in the Gulf of Panama through this weekend. 
Otherwise, gentle to moderate S to SW winds and moderate seas 
will prevail south of the monsoon trough, with gentle winds and 
slight seas occurring north of the trough, away from the gap 
winds. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1027 mb high is centered north of the area near 32N145W, and 
broad ridging is present north of the ITCZ. Moderate to fresh 
trades are occurring south of 24N and west of 112W, with locally
strong NE to E winds occurring between 14N and 20W west of 130W.
North of 24N, gentle to locally moderate winds are noted. Fresh 
long-period NW swell is combining with residual rough seas north
of the ITCZ, and a broad swath of seas of 8 to 10 ft is occurring
north of 08N and west of 115W. Higher seas of 11 to 13 ft are
noted north of 15N and west of 135W. South of the ITCZ, moderate
to locally fresh SE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail.

For the forecast, the NW swell will propagate southeastward over
the next several days, with this swell combining with trade wind
swell along and north of the ITCZ. Rough seas are anticipated 
north of 06N and west of 118W by Thu morning. Peak seas around 
13 ft are expected in the far western waters between 10N and 20N 
west of 135W. Fresh to strong trades winds will continue from 
north of the ITCZ to 20N, west of 120W. Farther east, strong NE 
to E winds and rough to very rough seas will develop downwind of 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Gulf of Papagayo tonight through Thu 
night, with the strongest winds from Tehuantepec extending SW 
into the waters north of 08N and east of 107W. Rough seas of 8 
to 12 will extend well SW of Tehuantepec and reach from 04N to 
14N and E of 110W by early Fri.

$$
ADAMS