000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111612 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Dec 11 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tehuantepec Storm Warning: The most significant gap wind event thus far of the season will occur across the Gulf of Tehuantepec today through Fri morning as a strong cold front sweeps southeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and southeastern Mexico, followed by building high pressure. Winds will rapidly increase to strong gale-force by this afternoon, and briefly increase further to storm-force late this afternoon through evening. Seas will quickly build to 18 to 22 ft this evening and tonight. Gale-force winds and high seas are expected to extend to near 300 NM from the Tehuantepec coast by this evening. Gales are then forecast to persist through Thu evening. Winds will gradually diminish to strong to near-gale force strength Thu night and continue to pulse through early next week. Gulf of California Gale Warning: A strong pressure gradient continues early this morning between a 1043 mb high over the Great Basin of the western U.S. and troughing along the Sierra Madre Occidentals of northwest Mexico. This pattern is supporting strong to gale force N to NW winds through the entire length of the Gulf of California and seas of 10 to 12 ft. Fresh to locally strong N winds also surround Cabo San Lucas, and are offshore of Cabo Corrientes. Strong NE gap winds are also occurring across most of the Baja Peninsula, spilling into the Pacific waters of Sebastian Vizcaino Bay and southwest of Punta Eugenia, as well as offshore of Punta Abreojos. The strong high pressure north of the region will weaken this afternoon through tonight, leading to quickly diminishing winds and seas across the Gulf. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N75W to 10N85W to 06.5N97.5W. The ITCZ then continues from 06.5N97.5W to 08N112W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 06N to 08N between 111W and 116W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on the Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning and the Gulf of California Gale Warning. A 1026 mb high is centered near 29N135W and weak ridging extends across the waters offshore of Baja California and southwestern Mexico. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds are occurring across the aforementioned regions, with locally strong NE winds occurring through the gaps of Baja California into the adjacent waters. Seas of 6 to 8 ft in NW swell prevail, with local seas to 9 ft in areas with fresh to strong winds. South of Cabo Corrientes, light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft in W swell prevail. For the forecast, aside from the storm-force winds developing across and offshore of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a weakening pressure gradient between high pressure in the Great Basin of the United States and troughing in northwestern Mexico will lead to subsiding gale-force winds in the Gulf of California later this morning. Winds will diminish further to moderate speeds late tonight into Thu morning. Winds will also gradually diminish across the Baja California offshore waters and the waters offshore of southwestern Mexico this evening through Thu. A new cold front moving through the eastern Pacific off the coast of California will lead to moderate to locally fresh N to NW winds and rough seas north of Punta Eugenia Thu night into Fri. Looking ahead, high pressure building into the region from the NW this weekend will support moderate to locally fresh N to NW winds north of Cabo Corrientes. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A tight pressure gradient between the Colombian low and a cold front in the southern Gulf of Mexico is leading to fresh NE winds in the Gulf of Papagayo. Seas in this region are 5 to 6 ft. Otherwise, moderate S to SW winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted south of the monsoon trough, with gentle to locally moderate winds occurring to the north. For the forecast, fresh NE gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo will increase to strong this evening through Thu, then pulse to strong at night through Fri night, as a strong pressure gradient between the Colombian low and an approaching cold front in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean prevails across the region. Strong winds and very rough seas along the eastern edge of a Tehuantepec storm-force wind event will impact the offshore waters of southwestern Guatemala tonight through early Fri, with associated NW swell spreading to offshore of Papagayo by Thu afternoon. Winds offshore of Guatemala will diminish Thu night with seas slowly subsiding through Fri. Moderate to locally fresh N winds will also pulse in the Gulf of Panama through this weekend. Otherwise, gentle to moderate S to SW winds and moderate seas will prevail south of the monsoon trough, with gentle winds and slight seas occurring north of the trough, away from the gap winds. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1026 mb high is centered near 29N135W, and broad ridging is present north of the ITCZ. Moderate to fresh trades are occurring south of 24N and west of 115W, with locally strong NE to E winds occurring between 14N and 20W west of 135W. NW swell moving through the regional waters is combining with seas developed in the area of fresh to strong winds to produce seas of 10 to 12 ft. North of 24N, gentle to locally moderate winds are noted. Fresh long-period NW swell is leading to rough seas north of 20N and west of 115W, and seas of 11 to 13 ft are noted north of 25N and west of 135W. South of the ITCZ, moderate to locally fresh SE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail. For the forecast, the NW swell will propagate southeastward over the next several days, with this swell combining with trade wind swell along and north of the ITCZ. Rough seas are anticipated north of 09N and west of 110W this morning, and north of 07N and west of 118W by Thu morning. Peak seas around 13 ft are expected in the far western waters between 10N and 20N west of 135W. Fresh to strong trades winds will continue from north of the ITCZ to 20N, west of 120W. New NW swell across the far NW waters this evening is expected to peak at 10 to 14 ft this morning before slowly subsiding. Farther east, strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas will develop downwind of the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Gulf of Papagayo tonight through Thu night, with the strongest winds from Tehuantepec extending SW into the waters north of 08N and east of 107W. Rough seas of 8 to 12 will extend well SW of Tehuantepec and reach from 04N to 14N and E of 110W by early Fri. $$ ADAMS