000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110357 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Dec 11 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0240 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tehuantepec Storm Warning: The most significant gap wind event thus far in the season will occur across the Gulf of Tehuantepec from early Wed morning through Fri morning as a strong cold front sweeps southeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and southeastern Mexico, followed by building high pressure. Winds will quickly reach gale-force Wed morning, then rapidly increase to strong gale-force by Wed afternoon, and briefly increase further to storm-force late Wed afternoon and evening. Seas will quickly build to 17 to 23 ft Wed evening and night. Gale-force winds and high seas are expected to extend to 300 NM from the Tehuantepec coast by Wed evening, and these winds are forecast to persist through early Thu evening. Winds will gradually diminish to strong to near-gale force strength Thu night and pulse through early next week. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N76W to 10N86W to 07.5N98W. The ITCZ extends from 07.5N98W to 08N109W to beyond 08N140W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N to 16.5N between 123W and 135W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on the Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Force winds. A strong pressure gradient between a 1038 mb high over the Great Basin of the western U.S. and troughing along the Sierra Madre Occidentales of northwest Mexico is supporting strong to locally near-gale force N to NW winds spreading through the entire length of the Gulf of California, while fresh to strong N winds surround Cabo San Lucas, and are offshore of Cabo Corrientes. This blast of strong northerly winds is also forcing strong to near-gale force NE gap winds across most of the Baja Peninsula spilling into the Pacific waters of Sebastian Vizcaino Bay and southwest of Punta Eugenia, as well as offshore of Punta Abreojos. Seas of 8 to 11 ft prevail across central portions of the Gulf in the areas of near-gale force winds. Seas are 7 to 9 ft across the nearshore waters of Baja, in the areas of strong NE gaps winds. Elsewhere, a weak ridge prevails across the waters offshore of southwestern Mexico, supporting gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft. For the forecast, aside from the storm-force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a strong cold front will sweep southward across eastern Mexico late tonight through Wed, and high pressure will quickly build over northern Mexico. This pattern will support strong to near-gale force N winds and rough seas of 8 to 12 ft across the Gulf of California, highest in central portions, as well as through the Baja California Peninsula gaps and adjacent Pacific waters through Wed evening. Winds and seas will diminish early Thu. A cold front moving through the eastern Pacific off the coast of California will lead to moderate to locally fresh N to NW winds north of Punta Eugenia Thu into Fri. Looking ahead, a storm system moving through the southwestern United States will support moderate to locally fresh N to NW winds north of Cabo Corrientes this weekend. Locally rough seas may accompany the winds. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE winds are across the Gulf of Papagayo region. Otherwise, moderate S to SW winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted south of the monsoon trough, along about 09N, with gentle to locally moderate winds occurring to the north. For the forecast, fresh NE gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo will increase to strong Wed evening through Thu, then pulse to strong at night through Fri night, as a strong pressure gradient between the Colombian low and an approaching Caribbean cold front develops across the region. Rough seas in mixed E and NW swell from a Tehuantepec storm-force wind event will develop Thu through Fri. Strong winds and very rough seas along the eastern edge of this storm-force gap wind event will impact the offshore waters of southwestern Guatemala Wed night through early Fri. Winds in this area will diminish through Thu night with seas slowly subsiding through Fri. Moderate to locally fresh N winds will also pulse in the Gulf of Panama through this weekend. Otherwise, gentle to moderate S to SW winds and moderate seas will prevail south of the monsoon trough, with gentle winds and slight seas occurring north of the trough, away from the gap winds. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1022 mb high is centered N of the area near 32N130W, producing a broad ridge extends across much of the waters north of the ITCZ and W of 115W. Moderate to fresh trades are occurring south of 21N and west of 120W, with locally strong NE to E winds occurring between 13N and 20W west of 135W. Seas of 8 to 11 ft accompany the fresh to locally strong winds. North of 21N, gentle to locally moderate winds are noted. NW swell is supporting seas of 8 to 10 ft north of 20N and west of 130W, except for the peak of new swell arriving into the far NW waters, where recent satellite altimeter data showed seas 10-14 ft. South of the ITCZ, moderate to locally fresh SE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail. For the forecast, the NW swell will propagate southeastward over the next several days, with this swell combining with trade wind swell along and north of the ITCZ. Rough seas are anticipated north of 12N and west of 122W by Wed morning, and north of 07N and west of 120W by Thu morning. Peak seas around 12 ft are expected in the far western waters between 10N and 20N west of 135W. Fresh to strong trades winds will continue from north of the ITCZ to 20N, west of 120W. New NW swell across the far NW waters this evening is expected to peak at 10-15 ft overnight there before slowly subsiding. Farther east, strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas will develop downwind of the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Gulf of Papagayo Wed night through Thu night, with the strongest winds from Tehuantepec extending SW into the waters north of 08N and east of 107W. Rough seas of 8 to 12 will extend well SW of Tehuantepec and reach from 04N to 14N and E of 110W by early Fri. $$ Stripling