000 AXPZ20 KNHC 102215 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Dec 10 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tehuantepec Storm Warning: A significant gap wind event will occur across the Gulf of Tehuantepec from early Wed morning through Fri morning as a strong cold front sweeps southeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and southeastern Mexico, followed by building high pressure. Winds will quickly reach gale-force Wed morning, then rapidly increase to strong gale-force by Wed afternoon, and briefly increase further to storm-force late Wed afternoon and evening. Seas will quickly build to 14 to 21 ft Wed afternoon and night. Gale-force winds and high seas are expected to extend to 300 NM from the Tehuantepec coast by Wed evening, and these winds are forecast to persist through early Thu evening. Winds will gradually diminish to strong to near-gale force strength Thu night and pulse through early next week. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure over NW Colombia, west-southwestward to 10N85W to 06N95W. The ITCZ extends from 06N96W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 13N to 16N between 122 and 125W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N to 20N west of 131W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on the Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Force winds. A strong pressure gradient between a 1034 mb high over southeastern California and troughing in northwest Mexico is supporting strong to locally near-gale force N to NW winds in the Gulf of California and fresh N winds surrounding Cabo Corrientes and Cabo San Lucas. Strong to near-gale force NE gap winds are noted in the Sebastian Vizcaino Bay north of Punta Eugenia. Seas of 6 to 9 ft are common in the areas of near-gale force winds. Elsewhere, ridging prevails across the waters offshore of southwestern Mexico, supporting gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft. For the forecast, aside from the storm-force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a strong cold front will sweep southward across eastern Mexico late tonight through Wed, and high pressure will quickly build over northern Mexico. This pattern will support strong to near-gale force N winds and rough seas of 8 to 11 ft across the Gulf of California as well as through the Baja California Peninsula gaps and adjacent waters through Wed evening. Winds and seas will diminish early Thu. A cold front moving through the eastern Pacific off the coast of California will lead to moderate to locally fresh N to NW winds north of Punta Eugenia Thu into Fri. Looking ahead, a storm system moving through the southwestern United States will support moderate to locally fresh N to NW winds north of Cabo Corrientes this weekend. Locally rough seas may accompany the winds. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong NE winds are pulsing in the Gulf of Papagayo. Otherwise, moderate S to SW winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted south of the monsoon trough, with gentle to locally moderate winds occurring to the north. For the forecast, pulsing fresh, to at times strong NE winds will occur across the Gulf of Papagayo through Wed evening. A strong pressure gradient between the Colombian low and an approaching cold front will lead to strong NE winds in this region late Wed through Sat. Rough seas in mixed E and NW swell will develop by Thu. Moderate to locally fresh N winds will also pulse in the Gulf of Panama through this weekend. Strong winds and very rough seas along the eastern edge of a storm-force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will impact the offshore waters of southwestern Guatemala Wed night through early Fri. Winds in this area will diminish through Thu night with seas slowly subsiding through Fri. Otherwise, gentle to moderate S to SW winds and moderate seas will prevail south of the monsoon trough, with gentle winds and slight seas occurring north of the trough, away from the gap winds. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1023 mb high is centered NW of the area near 30N146W and ridging extends across much of the waters north of the ITCZ. Moderate to fresh trades are occurring south of 21N and west of 114W, with locally strong NE to E winds occurring between 14N and 20W west of 134W. Seas of 8 to 10 ft accompany the fresh to locally strong winds. North of 21N, gentle to locally moderate winds are noted. A long-period NW swell is supporting seas of 8 to 10 ft north of 20N and west of 133W. South of the ITCZ, moderate to locally fresh SE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail. For the forecast, a long-period NW swell will propagate southeastward over the next several days, with this swell combining with rough seas along and north of the ITCZ. Rough seas are anticipated north of 12N and west of 122W by Wed morning, and north of 07N and west of 120W by Thu morning. Peak seas near 12 ft are possible in the far western waters between 10N and 20N west of 135W. Fresh to strong trades winds will continue from north of the ITCZ to 20N, west of 120W. Farther east, strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas will develop downwind of the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Gulf of Papagayo Wed night through Thu, with the strongest winds occurring north of 08N and east of 105W. Rough seas will extend well away from the gap wind event. $$ ADAMS