156 AXPZ20 KNHC 100951 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Dec 10 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tehuantepec Storm Warning: A robust gap wind event is anticipated across the Gulf of Tehuantepec from Wed morning through Fri morning, as a strong cold front sweeps southeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and southeast Mexico. Winds will quickly reach gale-force Wed morning and rapidly increase to strong gale-force by Wed afternoon, then briefly increase further to storm-force late Wed afternoon and evening. Seas will quickly build to 15 to 20 ft Wed afternoon through night. Gale-force winds and high seas are expected to extend to 250 nm from the Tehuantepec coast by Wed evening, and will persist across these area waters through Thu afternoon before gradually diminishing to strong N gap winds Thu night through Sun. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough extends from 10N76W to 10N84W to 06.5N91W to 06.5N95W. ITCZ continues from 06.5N95W to 07.5N104W to 08N129W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 12N to 15.5N between 118W and 130W, and from 08.5N to 15N between 131W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A narrow ridge extends southward from the northeastern Pacific across 30N along 125W and then southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. This pattern is maintaining gentle to moderate winds across the Baja offshore waters. New NW swell moving into these area waters overnight is producing seas of 5 to 6 ft across the Baja waters and 7 to 8 ft N through NW of Isla Guadalupe. Inside the Gulf of California gentle to moderate winds have developed across central and south portions tonight, where seas are 1 to 3 ft. Fresh to strong northerly winds have begun to spill into the far northern Gulf overnight, with seas building 4 to 5 ft. Further south, moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are occurring from the entrance to the Gulf of California to Cabo Corrientes, becoming N to NE across the Revillagigedo Islands. Fresh northerly winds and 5 to 7 ft seas continue across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and nearby waters. Light to gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft in mixed moderate swell prevails across the rest of the southern Mexico offshore waters. For the forecast, a strong cold front will sweep southward across eastern Mexico late tonight through Wed. In response to strong high pressure building southward from the Great Basin region of the U.S., strong to near gale-force northerly winds and rapidly building seas will spread southward down the length of the Gulf of California, from early Tue morning through Wed evening. Strong NE gap winds will also spill across the Baja Peninsula into the Pacific near and offshore waters. Strongest winds with gusts to gale-force are expected across the Tiburon Basin, where winds will funnel between the islands. Farther south, strong gales are forecast across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and area waters Wed late morning through Thu, with a brief period of storm-force winds this evening, following this same cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico and southern Mexico. See the special features section above for more information on this gale area. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A strong ridge extending across the Caribbean north of the area is maintaining fresh NE to E winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region, and extends downstream to 88W. Seas there are at 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the aforementioned strong surface ridge will sustain pulses of fresh to locally strong gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region through this morning, then return again Wed night through Sat night. Gentle to moderate winds with moderate seas primarily in SW swell will persist elsewhere. Strong winds and high seas along the eastern edge of a storm- force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will impact the offshore waters of southwestern Guatemala Wed night through early Fri. Winds and seas there are expected to improve significantly by Sat. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface trough N of the ITCZ along 121W is coupling with divergent winds aloft associated with an elongated trough to produce scattered moderate convection north of the ITCZ between 118W and 129W. A surface ridge extending southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds south of 21N to the ITCZ, and west of 110W. Seas over these waters are 7 to 10 ft, with the highest seas of 9 to 10 ft occurring in the trade wind zone of the deep tropics west of 130W. Active convection is along occurring in the trade wind zone from 09N to 15N and W of 128W. North of 20N and west of 120W, gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds with 6 to 9 ft seas are present. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft prevail south of the ITCZ. For the forecast, new NW swell will continue to propagate into the region north of 20N and and west of 125W tonight and Tue, supporting 6 to 9 ft combined seas across the NW waters. Seas of 7 to 10 ft are going to persist across the tropical waters south of 20N and west of 130W through Thu, where fresh to strong trade winds will persist as a new ridge builds into the western waters from the NW. Looking ahead, winds and seas south of 20N are expected to gradually subside toward the weekend. Farther east, a long fetch of moderate to fresh E to SE winds near the aforementioned surface trough along with shorter-period swell generated from gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec has resulted in 6 to 8 ft seas north of the ITCZ into the trough along 121W. Winds and seas will diminish east of 120W through Wed as the trough and associated weather shifts westward, and the ridge to the north weakens. $$ Stripling