000 AXPZ20 KNHC 092228 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Dec 9 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A robust gap wind event is anticipated at the Gulf of Tehuantepec from Wed through Fri morning. Winds will reach gale to strong-gale force by Wed afternoon, along with peak seas at 15 to 20 ft. Winds might increase further to storm-force Wed evening. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough extends from near the coastal border of Panama and Colombia to 06N92W. An ITCZ continues from 06N92W to 09N130W and from 10N133W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 07N to 11N between 98W and 117W, and from 09N to 14N between 127W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A narrow ridge extends southward from the northeastern Pacific to near the Revillagigedo Islands. This pattern is maintaining gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas across the Baja offshore waters, except inside the Gulf of California where mainly gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail. Further south, moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are occurring from the coastal waters along Cabo Corrientes and extend west and southwest, become NE winds to the south of the Revillagigedo Islands. Fresh with locally strong northerly winds and 5 to 7 ft seas continue across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and nearby waters. Light to gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail for the rest of the souther Mexico offshore waters. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong N winds at the Gulf of Tehuantepec will subside to moderate later this evening. Other than moderate to fresh NW winds off Cabo Corrientes, the surface ridge will support gentle winds across the rest of the Mexico offshore waters through tonight. A strong cold front will sweep southward across eastern Mexico Mon night through Wed. In response, strong to locally near-gale northerly winds and rapidly building seas will spread southward down the length of the Gulf of California, from late Mon night through Wed evening. Strong NE gap winds will also spill across the Baja Peninsula into the Pacific offshore waters. Farther south, strong gales are forecast at the Gulf of Tehuantepec and nearby waters Wed morning through Thu, following this same cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico and southern Mexico. Winds may briefly increase to near storm-force late Wed afternoon and evening. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A strong ridge extending across the Caribbean north of the area is maintaining fresh NE to E winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region, and extends downstream to 88W. Seas there are at 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the aforementioned strong surface ridge will sustain pulses of fresh gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region through Tue morning, then return again Wed night through Fri night. Gentle to moderate winds with moderate seas primarily in SW swell will persist elsewhere. Winds and seas along the eastern edge of a strong gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will impact the offshore waters of Guatemala Wed night through early Fri. Fresh to strong northerly winds and very rough to high seas are expected near the far western offshore waters of Guatemala. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface trough near 16N117W is coupling with divergent winds aloft to cause scattered moderate convection southwest and south of the Revillagigedo Islands but north of the ITCZ. A surface ridge extending southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds south of 20N to the ITCZ, and west of 115W. Seas over these waters are 7 to 10 ft, with the highest seas of 9 to 10 ft occurring in the trade wind zone of the deep tropics west of 130W. North of 20N and west of 120W, gentle to moderate N to SE winds with 6 to 8 ft seas are present. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft prevail south of the ITCZ. For the forecast, a new set of NW swell will continue to propagate into the region north of 20N and and west of 125W, supporting 6 to 8 ft combined seas. Seas of 7 to 10 ft are going to persist across the tropical waters south of 20N and west of 130W through Thu, where fresh to strong trade winds will persist south of the weakening ridge. Looking ahead, winds and seas south of 20N are expected to gradually subside toward the weekend. Farther east, a long fetch of moderate to fresh E to SE winds near the aforementioned surface trough along with shorter-period swell generated from gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec has resulted in 6 to 8 ft seas north of the ITCZ into the trough between 110W and 120W. Winds and seas will diminish east of 120W through Wed as the trough and associated weather shifts westward, and the ridge to the north weakens. $$ Chan