000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090336 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Dec 9 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W to 05N80W to 07N88W. ITCZ continues from 07N88W to 10N118W to 09N129W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 06N to 09N between 93W and 106W, from 08N to 16N between 105W and 128W, and from 07.5N to 10N W of 129W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong northerly winds and seas at 6 to 7 ft are occurring across and downwind of the Gulf of Tehuantepec and nearby waters. N swell generated from these winds continues to cause 6 to 7 ft seas at the far southwestern offshore waters of Guatemala near 11N94W. Fresh with locally strong northerly winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are found offshore of Cabo Corrientes and become fresh NE winds extending to the Revillagigedo Islands. Otherwise, a broad ridge dominates the rest of the Mexican offshore waters, anchored by a 1029 mb high pressure near 45N130W. This pattern is maintaining gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas across the Baja offshore waters, except the Gulf of California where light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, the high pressure across the NE Pacific extending south and southeastward into the region tonight will drift NE and weaken through Tue. Fresh to strong N to NE winds between the Cabo Corrientes area and the Revillagigedo Islands tonight that will gradually weaken through Mon. Elsewhere offshore of Baja California, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will persist through Mon night. Fresh to strong gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will decrease through Tue and high pressure across the Gulf of Mexico and southeastern Mexico shifts eastward. A strong cold front will sweep across northern Mexico Mon night through Wed. Strong high pressure will move into the Great Basin region behind this front. The associated pressure gradient across NW Mexico and Baja California will induce strong northerly winds with areas of near gale- force winds and rapidly building seas spreading southward down the length of the Gulf of California from late Mon night through late Wed, with strong NE gap winds developing across the Pacific offshore waters of Baja. Farther south, strong gales are possible over the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Wed, following this same cold front moving through southern Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A strong ridge extending across the Caribbean north of the area is maintaining fresh to locally strong NE to E winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region, and extends downstream to 88W, seas are at 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, residual swell generated by strong winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will linger at the far western offshore waters of Guatemala tonight. A strong surface ridge north of the Caribbean will support pulses of fresh to strong gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo through Mon evening. Gentle to moderate winds with moderate seas primarily in SW swell will persist elsewhere. Looking ahead, winds and seas on the eastern edge of a strong gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will again impact the offshore waters of Guatemala by late Wed. Pulses of fresh to strong gap winds and rough seas are also possible across the Gulf of Papagayo region Wed night through Fri. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1029 mb high pressure positioned north of the area near 45N130W extends southward to 20N between 115W and 145W. This pattern supports moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds south of 21N to the ITCZ, and west of 110W. Seas over these waters are 7 to 9 ft, with the highest seas occurring in the trade wind zone of the deep tropics west of 125W. North of 20N and west of 120W, gentle to moderate N to E winds with 6 to 8 ft seas are present. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft prevail. For the forecast, new NW swell has begun propagating into the region north of 20N and and west of 125W, supporting 6 to 8 ft combined seas and will reaching as high as 10 ft by midweek over the tropical waters south of 15N, where moderate to fresh trade winds will persist. Looking ahead, these trade winds will weaken and NW swell will subside west of 125W toward the end of the week. Farther east, a surface trough has formed southwest of Socorro Island along 114W. A long fetch of moderate to fresh E to SE winds along with shorter-period swell generated from gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will result in 6 to 8 ft seas north of the ITCZ into the trough between 95W and 115W through Mon. Converging trade winds across and west of this trough are interacting with an upper level trough to produce scattered moderate convection from 08N to 16N between 105W and 128W. Winds and seas will diminish east of 120W as the trough and and associated weather shifts westward through Tue. $$ Stripling