000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062202
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Dec 6 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between
high pressure north of the area and lower pressures in the deep 
tropics is producing strong to gale-force northerly winds in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec. These winds are forecast to continue 
through Sun morning. Winds will diminish below strong force on 
Mon. Rough seas are expected to continue through the weekend. 
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at the website- 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 
10N85W to 07N104W. The ITCZ stretches from 07N104W to a 1010 mb
low pressure near 08N117W to 06N130W and beyond 08N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection from 07N to 10N between 110W and 
125W and between 127W and 135W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section above for information 
on a gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region.

A 1028 mb high pressure system centered near 33N131W continues 
to dominate the basin. Moderate to locally fresh NW-N winds are 
occurring in the offshore waters of Baja California. Seas in 
these waters are 3-6 ft. Gentle to moderate NW winds are also 
found in the northern and southern Gulf of California. Seas in 
the area described are 2-3 ft, except 3 to 5 ft at the entrance 
of the Gulf of California. Elsewhere in the Mexican offshore 
waters, outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moderate or weaker 
winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, aside from the ongoing gale-force winds in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec region, high pressure will support mainly
moderate N-NW winds in the offshore waters of Baja California
this evening. Winds will then slacken through Mon. Meanwhile, 
winds may increase to strong speeds along the entire length of 
the Gulf of California Mon late night into Tue, and may approach 
gale- force speeds in the northern Gulf waters. These winds will 
filter through the passages of Baja California, resulting in 
fresh to strong NE winds in the offshore waters. Finally, another
gale-force gap wind event may arrive by midweek to the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A strong ridge over the central United States continues to
sustain fresh to locally strong NE to E winds in the Gulf of 
Papagayo and extending downstream to 92W. Seas in these waters 
are 4-6 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
are prevalent.

For the forecast, strong ridge north of the Caribbean will 
continue to support mostly fresh NE winds over the Papagayo 
region, pulsing to strong speeds at night, through Mon. Winds 
will then diminish some through midweek, before possibly 
increasing again by Thu. Otherwise, light to gentle southwest to 
west winds along with moderate seas are expected south of the 
monsoon trough going into the weekend, with the exception of 
moderate southwest winds and moderate seas offshore Colombia 
south of 05N through early Sat.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1028 mb high pressure system positioned north of the area 
supports moderate to fresh northeasterly trade winds south of 
22N to the ITCZ. Seas over these waters are 8-10 ft, with the 
highest seas occurring in the trade waters west of 124W. Recent
scatterometer data depicted a small low pressure near 08N117W 
with fresh to strong winds within 120 nm in the NE quadrant. 
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail 
elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will maintain moderate to fresh
NE to E winds across the trade waters into early next week, at 
times increasing to locally strong in the western waters. Rough 
seas will persist in the western waters through the weekend. The
aforementioned low pressure will likely dissipate in the next 24
hours. A new set of long-period NW swell is forecast to enter 
the NW part of the area beginning late tonight into Sat. 
Meanwhile, a cold front may clip the far NE part of the area 
early next week, with its impacts on winds and seas more likely 
to occur near Baja California Norte.

$$
KRV/AGUIRRE