000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060930
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Dec 6 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0855 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a
strong high pressure system north of the area and lower pressures
in the deep tropics result in strong to gale-force northerly 
winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A recent scatterometer satellite
pass captured near gale-force northerly winds in the Gulf waters.
Latest model guidance suggests that gale-force winds will persist
through Sun morning. Winds will diminish below strong force on 
Mon. Rough seas are expected to continue through the weekend. 
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at the website- 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 
10N85W to 07N108W. The ITCZ stretches from 07N108W to 07N125W 
and to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 05N to 11N and west of 95W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section above for information 
on a gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region.

A 1027 mb high pressure system centered near 33N131W continues to
dominate the basin. Moderate to locally fresh NW-N winds are
occurring in the offshore waters of Baja California as shown by a
recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 5-7
ft. Moderate to locally fresh NW-N winds are also found in the central
and southern Gulf of California. Seas in the area described are
4-6 ft. Elsewhere in the Mexican offshore waters, outside of the
Gulf of Tehuantepec, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas 
prevail.

For the forecast, aside from the ongoing gale-force winds in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec region, high pressure will support mainly
moderate N-NW winds in the offshore waters of Baja California
today. Winds will then slacken through late Mon. Meanwhile, 
winds may increase to strong speeds along the entire length of 
the Gulf of California Mon night into Tue, and may approach gale-
force speeds in the northern Gulf waters. These winds will 
filter through the passages of Baja California, resulting in 
fresh to strong NE winds in the offshore waters. Finally, another
gale- force gap wind event may arrive by midweek to the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A strong ridge over the central United States continues to
sustain fresh to locally strong NE winds in the Gulf of Papagayo
and extending downstream to 92W. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are
prevalent.

For the forecast, strong ridge north of the Caribbean will 
continue to support mostly fresh NE winds over the Papagayo 
region, pulsing to strong speeds at night, through Mon. Winds
will then diminish some through midweek, before possibly
increasing again by Thu. Otherwise, light to gentle southwest to
west winds along with moderate seas are expected south of the 
monsoon trough going into the weekend, with the exception of 
moderate southwest winds and moderate seas offshore Colombia 
south of 05N through early Sat.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1027 mb high pressure system positioned north of the area
supports moderate to fresh easterly trade winds south of 27N to
the ITCZ. Seas over these waters are 7-10 ft, with the highest 
seas occurring in the trade waters west of 130W. Elsewhere, 
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will maintain moderate to fresh
easterly winds across the trade waters into early next week, at 
times increasing to locally strong in the western waters. Rough 
seas will persist in the western waters through the weekend. A 
new set of long-period NW swell is forecast to enter the NW part 
of the area beginning late tonight. Meanwhile, a cold front may 
clip the far NE part of the area early next week, with its 
impacts on winds and seas more likely to occur near Baja 
California Norte.

$$
Delgado