000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060255 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Dec 6 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0255 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a high pressure north of the area and lower pressures in the deep tropics result in strong to near gale-force northerly winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds will increase to gale-force late tonight. Model guidance suggests that these winds will remain at minimal gale-force going into Sat before lowering to below gale- force speeds on Sat afternoon. However, winds may drop below gale-force during a portion of the mornings and afternoon hours. Thereafter, fresh to strong N-NE gap winds will persist into early Sun, diminishing to moderate to fresh speeds afterward. Rough seas are expected to continue into the weekend. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the southern coast of Costa Rica near 08N83W to 07N100W. The ITCZ stretches from 07N100W to 09N120W and to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 10N and between 94W and 115W. Similar convection is noted from 06N to 12N and west of 121W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section above for information on a gale-force gap wind event expected to start up again in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. A subtropical ridge centered well west of southern California extends southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds and seas of 4-6 ft are occurring in the offshore waters of Baja California. Similar conditions are also found in the central and southern Gulf of California, while light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail in the northern portion of the Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters, excluding the Gulf of Tehuantepec. For the forecast, aside from the ongoing gale-force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region, the pressure gradient related to high pressure over the eastern Pacific will continue to support gentle to moderate NW-N winds and moderate seas across the offshore waters through Fri. Afterward, winds weaken some through late Mon. Winds are forecast to become fresh to strong, mainly NE in direction, west of Baja California Norte on Tue and Tue night. Meanwhile, winds may increase to strong speeds along the entire length of the Gulf of California Mon night into Tue, with some chance for them to attain gale-force speeds in the northern Gulf waters. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...Updated High pressure to the north of the area supports fresh NE winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region. These winds will pulse to strong speeds later tonight. Seas over these waters are 5-7 ft. Farther south, gentle to moderate S-SW winds and seas of 4-6 ft are south of the monsoon trough. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are evident. For the forecast, strong ridge north of the Caribbean will continue to support mostly fresh NE winds over the Papagayo region, pulsing to strong speeds at night, through Mon. Farther west, rough seas induced by gale-force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue through early Fri. Otherwise, light to gentle southwest to west winds along with moderate seas are expected south of the monsoon trough going into the weekend, with the exception of moderate southwest winds and moderate seas offshore Colombia south of 05N through early Sat. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A subtropical ridge located north of the eastern tropical Pacific continues to promote moderate to fresh easterly trade winds south of 27N to the ITCZ. Seas over these waters are 6-8 ft, with the highest seas occurring in the trade waters west of 135W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, little change is expected over the western part of the area through Fri night. Over the eastern waters, fresh to locally strong N-NE winds and moderate to rough seas will continue to spread downstream from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Gulf of Papagayo. A new set of long-period northwest swell is forecast to enter the NW part of the area beginning late Fri night. Otherwise, high pressure will continue to be the main feature controlling the general wind flow pattern over the discussion domain through Sat, with its associated gradient allowing for moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas to occur from the ITCZ north to near 26N and west of about 119W. A cold front may clip the far northeast part of the area early next week, with its impacts on winds and seas more likely to occur near Baja California Norte. $$ Delgado