000 AXPZ20 KNHC 052226 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Dec 05 2024 Corrected Remainder of the Area section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2215 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A recent ASCAT satellite date pass indicates that winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region have dropped to below gale-force speeds. These winds are forecast to kick back up to gale-force late tonight as the pressure gradient between high pressure centered over northern Mexico and relatively lower pressure south of Mexico tightens once again, Model guidance suggests that these winds will remain at minimal gale-force going into Sat before lowering to below gale-force speeds on Sat afternoon. Prior to that time, it is possible that winds may drop to below gale-force during a portion of the mornings and afternoon hours. Thereafter, fresh to strong north northeast gap winds will exists into early Sun, diminishing to moderate to fresh speeds afterward. Rough seas are expected to continue into the weekend. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia southwest to 08N78W to 08N85W to 06N91W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 07N104W to 07N112W to low pressure near 09N121W 1011 mb to 08N130W and to 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm south of the trough between 78W and 81W, also within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 94W and 99W, between 106W and 109W, within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 135W and 139W and within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 94W and 99W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section above for information on a gale-force gap wind event expected to start up again in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. High pressure of 1029 mb centered well north of the area near 33N130W continues to maintain moderate to locally fresh northwest winds across the offshore waters of Baja California. Seas over these waters are 5 to 7 ft. Latest ASCAT satellite data passes generally indicate gentle northwest winds over the northern and central sections of the Gulf while gentle to moderate northwest to north winds are over the southern section. Seas are 3 to 4 ft over the Gulf, except for 2 ft or less seas over the northern Gulf. Light to moderate moderate winds are elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters, excluding the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and over the Michoacan and Guerrero waters, where winds are light and variable. For the forecast, aside from the ongoing gale-force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region, the pressure gradient related to high pressure over the eastern Pacific will continue to generally support gentle to moderate northwest to north winds and moderate seas across the offshore waters through Fri. Afterward, winds weaken some through late Mon. Winds are forecast to become fresh to strong, mainly northeast in direction, west of Baja California Norte on Tue and Tue night. Meanwhile, winds may increase to strong speeds along the entire length of the Gulf of California Mon night into Tue, with some chance for them to attain gale- force speeds in the northern Gulf waters. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...Updated Fresh to strong northeast winds are over the Gulf of Papagayo region, reaching downstream of the Gulf to near 92W. Seas over these waters are 5 to 7 ft. Farther south, moderate south to southwest winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are south of the monsoon trough. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are evident. For the forecast, strong high pressure north of the area will continue to support mostly fresh northeast winds over the Papagayo region, pulsing to strong speeds at night, through Mon. Farther west, rough seas induced by gale-force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue through early Fri. Otherwise, light to gentle southwest to west winds along with moderate seas are expected south of the monsoon trough going into the weekend, with the exception of moderate southwest winds and moderate seas offshore Colombia south of 05N through early Sat. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...Corrected A 1029 mb high center is analyzed north of the area near 33N130W. It continues to support moderate to fresh easterly trade winds south of 27N to the ITCZ. Seas over these waters are 7 to 9 ft, with the highest seas present north of 18N and west of about 137W. Gentle to moderate winds are north of 27N, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. For the forecast, little change is expected over the western part of the area through Fri night. Over the eastern waters, fresh to locally strong north to northeast winds and rough seas will continue to spread downstream from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Gulf of Papagayo. A new set of long-period northwest swell is forecast to enter the NW part of the area beginning late Fri night. Otherwise, high pressure will continue to be the main feature controlling the general wind flow pattern over the discussion domain through Sat, with its associated gradient allowing for moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas to occur from the ITCZ north to near 26N and west of about 119W. A cold front may clip the far northeast part of the area early next week, with its impacts on winds and seas more likely to occur near Baja California Norte. $$ Aguirre