000 AXPZ20 KNHC 042103 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Dec 04 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure over NE Mexico and lower pressure south of Mexico will continue to produce gale-force north to northeast winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region through Fri morning. There may be some occasional gusts to gale-force during Fri afternoon and night. Prior to Fri morning, these winds will be in a pulsing mode, with the possibility that at times they may drop to just below gale force. Thereafter, strong north to northeast gap winds will occur into early Sun. Seas with this event reached a maximum of around 14 ft this morning. These seas will subside to a maximum of around 10 ft on Fri, and continue to gradually subside through the upcoming weekend. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 08N82W to 07N90W to 07N97W to 06N105W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to low pressure near 08N115W 1011 mb, and to 07N121W to 08N129W, resuming to the west of a trough at 08N132W and to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the ITCZ between 111W and 116W, also within 60 nm north of the trough between 95W and 100W and between 128W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section above for information on an ongoing gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. A weak high pressure regime dominates the basin, supporting moderate to locally fresh NW winds and seas of 5-7 ft in the offshore waters of Baja California. A relatively weak gradient will support light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are found in the rest of the Mexican offshore waters and Gulf of California, excluding the Gulf of Tehuantepec. For the forecast, aside from the ongoing gale-force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region, high pressure over the eastern Pacific will continue to support mainly moderate northwest to north winds and moderate seas across the remainder of the Mexico offshore waters for the rest of the week. Winds will diminish this weekend. Long-period northwest swell is forecast to enter the waters north of Punta Eugenia early next week, resulting in seas to near 10 ft. Meanwhile, winds may increase to strong force along the entire length of the Gulf of California by Tue. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The pressure gradient related to strong high pressure of 1030 mb centered in the southeastern United States is bringing mostly fresh northeast winds across the Gulf of Papagayo and downstream to near 92W as noted in an ASCAT satellite data pass from this morning. Seas over these waters are 7 to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds reach downstream to 95W, and are also affecting the offshore waters of Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala. Seas of 6 to 9 ft in northwest swell generated from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap-wind event are impacting the offshore waters of Guatemala, El Salvador and northern Nicaragua. Seas are up to 8 ft in the far offshore waters of Guatemala. Farther south, gentle to moderate northwest west winds just south of the central portion of Panama. Light and variable winds are elsewhere south of Panama to near 05N, where winds become mostly moderate in speeds and southwest in direction south of that latitude. Seas of 4 to 6 ft are with these winds. Otherwise, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, strong high pressure north of the area will pulse the current fresh northeast winds that are in the Gulf of Papagayo back up to strong speeds by this evening and likely to last into early Thu before diminishing back to mostly fresh speeds. Locally rough seas in northeast swell associated with these winds will continue into Thu. Winds will remain fresh to locally strong into this weekend. Farther west, rough seas induced by gale-force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue through early Fri. Moderate to locally fresh northeast winds will pulse across the remainder of the Central American waters through Thu. Otherwise, moderate, to at times, fresh south to southwest winds and moderate seas will remain south of the monsoon trough. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1026 mb centered at 31N129W is controlling the general weather pattern throughout. The gradient between the high pressure and comparatively lower pressure to the south is resulting in moderate to fresh trades south of about 20N and west of 120W. Seas over these waters are 8 to 10 ft in mixed swell. The highest of these are west of 135W as noted in a recent altimeter satellite data pass over that part of the area. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are evident. For the forecast, little over change is expected in the western part of the area through the end of the week while in the eastern part of the area fresh to strong northeast to east winds and rough seas will continue to spread downstream from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Gulf of Papagayo. A new set of long- period northwest is forecast to enter the northwest part of the area this weekend. Otherwise, high pressure will dominate the eastern Pacific, supporting moderate to locally fresh trades and moderate seas through the rest of the week. $$ Aguirre