000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032151
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Dec 3 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Gale-force winds continue in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec as a tight pressure gradient between a
1026 mb high in east-central Mexico and trough in the western 
Gulf of Mexico prevails. The strongest winds are expected today 
into early Wed. Gales will continue into late Wed night, and 
strong gap winds will occur into this weekend. Rough to very 
rough seas will accompany these winds, with peak seas near 16 ft
expected. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by 
the National Hurricane Center at the website 
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 06N99W. The ITCZ 
continues from 06N99W to a 1011 mb low near 09N127W to beyond 
08N140W. Scattered moderate to locally strong convection is 
occurring from 06N to 09N between 90W and 102W, from 06N to 09N 
between 110W to 112W, and from 06N to 10N between 120W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section above for information 
on gale-force N gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

A broad subtropical ridge dominates the eastern Pacific, and a
1017 mb low is over southwestern Arizona, with a trough 
extending through the Gulf of California. This pattern supports 
moderate NW to NE winds over the waters offshore of Baja 
California and in the Gulf of California. Seas range from 2 to 4 
ft in the Gulf, and from 5 to 7 ft offshore of Baja California. 
Farther south, gentle to locally moderate N to NW winds and seas 
of 3 to 5 ft prevail.

For the forecast, aside from gale-force winds in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, high pressure over the eastern Pacific will 
continue to support mainly moderate NW to N winds and moderate 
seas across the remainder of the Mexico offshore waters this 
week. Winds will diminish this weekend.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Strong to near gale-force E winds continue in the Gulf of
Papagayo as a strong pressure gradient between ridging in the
Gulf of Mexico and the Colombian low prevails. Fresh NE winds
extend downstream to near 93W. Seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted in 
this region, building to 8 ft with the strongest winds. Moderate 
to locally fresh NE winds are also occurring offshore of 
Guatemala through Nicaragua. Elsewhere, moderate S to SW winds 
are occurring offshore of Colombia and Ecuador, mainly from 01N 
to 05N. Otherwise, gentle to locally moderate S to SW winds and 
moderate seas prevail south of the monsoon trough. 

For the forecast, strong NE winds will occur in the Gulf of
Papagayo into Thu as a strong pressure gradient between ridging
to the north and the Colombian low prevails. Winds may approach
gale-force today through Wed morning. Locally rough seas in NE
swell associated with these winds will occur into Thu. Winds will
remain fresh into this weekend. Farther west, rough seas induced
by gale-force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will enter waters
well offshore of Guatemala tonight. Moderate to locally fresh NE
winds will pulse across the remainder of the Central American 
waters through Thu. Otherwise, moderate to at times fresh S to SW
winds and moderate seas will prevail south of the monsoon 
trough.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad subtropical ridge dominates the eastern Pacific, 
supporting gentle to moderate NE to SE winds north of 20N. 
Moderate to fresh trade winds prevail south of 20N and west of 
120W, with locally strong winds occurring west of 138W. Rough 
seas of 8 to 10 ft are noted south of 20N and west of 116W. 
Moderate to locally fresh S to SE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are
noted south of the ITCZ and west of 100W. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, a long-period NW swell will promote rough seas
west of 115W through midweek. Peak seas near 11 ft are likely in
the far western waters. In the eastern waters, fresh to strong 
NE to E winds and rough seas will spread downstream from the Gulf
of Tehuantepec and Gulf of Papagayo over the next couple of 
days, diminishing late this week. Otherwise, high pressure will 
dominate the eastern Pacific, supporting moderate to locally 
fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas through the rest of this 
week.

$$
ADAMS