000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030905
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Dec 3 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0855 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A robust ridge over the central
United States continues to produce strong to gale-force N winds
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The strongest winds are expected
today into Wed, with the weather pattern persisting into the 
weekend. Winds will diminish below gale force Wed night. Rough to
very rough seas will accompany these winds, with peak seas near 
15 ft expected. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued 
by the National Hurricane Center at the website 
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N106W. A 1012 mb low
pres is analyzed along the monsoon trough near 08N94W. The ITCZ 
stretches from 07N106W to a 1012 mb low pres near 08N128W and to
beyond 09N140W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is 
observed from 04N to 12N and east of 110W. Similar convection is
noted 05N to 11N and between 113W and 135W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section above for information 
on gale-force N gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

A broad subtropical ridge centered west of southern California
extends weakly into the offshore waters of Mexico. An scatterometer
satellite pass from a couple of hours ago indicated that moderate
to locally fresh NW winds are found north of Punta Eugenia, while
gentle to moderate northerly winds are evident in the remainder
of the Baja California offshore waters. Seas in these waters are
5-7 ft. Gentle to moderate NW winds and seas of 2-4 ft are
occurring in the Gulf of California.

In the rest of the Mexican offshore waters, outside of the Gulf
of Tehuantepec, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are
prevalent.

For the forecast, aside from gale-force winds in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, high pressure over the eastern Pacific will 
continue to support mainly moderate NW winds and moderate seas 
across the remainder of the Mexico offshore waters this week. 
Winds will diminish this weekend.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A tight pressure gradient continues to promote fresh to strong 
easterly trade winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region and these 
winds extend downstream to near 92W. Seas in these waters are 
4-7 ft, building to 8 ft with the strongest winds. Moderate to
locally fresh northerly winds and slight seas are noted in the
Gulf of Panama. Farther south, moderate southerly winds are 
found south of the monsoon trough, especially north of the 
equator. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or 
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, strong NE winds will prevail in the Gulf of 
Papagayo and downstream through much of this week due to a strong
ridge to the north. Winds could approach gale-force today into 
Wed. Locally rough seas in NE swell is forecast to develop by 
mid-week in this region in association with these winds. Winds 
will diminish below strong force by late Thu. Farther west, rough
seas induced by gale-force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will
enter waters well offshore of Guatemala by mid-week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1024 mb high pressure system centered west of southern
California dominates the tropical eastern Pacific, supporting 
moderate to fresh easterly trade winds south of 18N and west of 
120W. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite
pass. Seas in these waters are 8-10 ft. Moderate to locally 
fresh southerly winds are noted south of the ITCZ and west of 
100W. Seas are 6-9 ft in the area described. Elsewhere, moderate
or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the long-period NW swell will promote rough
seas west of 115W through midweek. Peak seas near 10 ft are 
likely in the far western waters. Seas will subside later this
week. In the eastern waters, fresh to strong NE-E winds and 
rough seas will spread downstream from the Gulfs of Tehuantepec 
and Papagayo over the next couple of days, diminishing late this 
week. Otherwise, high pressure will dominate the eastern Pacific,
supporting gentle to locally fresh NE-E winds and moderate seas
through the forecast period.

$$
Delgado