000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022156
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Dec 2 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The strong pressure gradient 
between a 1029 mb high over northern Mexico and a trough in the 
western Gulf of Mexico will support gale-force N winds in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec this week. The strongest winds are expected 
on Tue into Wed. Rough to very rough seas will accompany these 
winds, with peak seas near 15 ft expected. Gale-force winds will
continue through late this week. Please read the latest High 
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the 
website 
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 06N105W. The ITCZ 
continues from 06N105W to a 1011 mb low pressure near 10N128W to
another 1011 mb low pressure near 10N136W to beyond 08N140W. 
Scattered moderate to locally strong convection is observed from
07N to 10N between 89W and 95W and from 06N to 09N between 99W 
and 106W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N 
to 09N between 116W and 128W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section above for information 
on gale-force N gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

A trough has been analyzed over northwestern Mexico into the Gulf
of California, and a 1021 mb high is centered near 30N122W. The 
pressure gradient between these features supports moderate to 
locally fresh NW winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft in central and 
southern portions of the Gulf of California. Elsewhere, ridging 
prevails over the remainder of the Mexico offshore waters, with 
gentle to locally moderate winds observed. Seas range from 4 to 7
ft offshore of Baja California, and from 3 to 5 ft offshore of 
southwestern Mexico. 

For the forecast, aside from gale-force winds in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, moderate to locally fresh NW winds will continue in
the Gulf of California into Tue as troughing prevails over the 
region. High pressure building over the eastern Pacific will lead
to gentle to moderate NW winds and moderate seas across the 
remainder of the Mexico offshore waters this week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Strong NE winds are occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo as the
pressure gradient between the Colombian low and ridging to the
north of the region strengthens. Seas in this region range from 4
to 6 ft in NE swell. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh S to SW
winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are occurring south of 06N. Between
06N and the monsoon trough, gentle to locally moderate SW winds
and seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted. North of the monsoon trough,
gentle to locally moderate NE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft
prevail. Scattered moderate to locally strong convection is
occurring east of 86W and north of 4.5N to the coast of 
Colombia and Panama. Strong winds and rough seas are likely 
occurring near convection. 

For the forecast, strong NE winds will occur in the Gulf of 
Papagayo through much of this week as the tight pressure 
gradient between a building ridge to the north and the Colombian
low prevails. Winds could approach gale-force Tue into Wed. 
Locally rough seas in NE swell look to develop by mid-week in 
this region in association with these winds. Farther west, rough 
seas induced by gale-force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will 
enter waters well offshore of Guatemala by mid-week. Otherwise, 
gentle to moderate S to SW winds and moderate seas will occur 
south of the monsoon trough this week, with moderate to locally 
fresh NE winds and moderate seas occurring to the north of the 
trough.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Moderate to fresh E to NE winds are noted north of the ITCZ and 
south of 20N today, with the highest winds occurring surrounding
a 1011 mb low pressure near 10N136W. Farther north, a 1021 mb 
high is centered near 30N122W, and light to gentle winds prevail
north of 20N. South of the ITCZ, moderate to fresh SE winds are 
noted. A long-period N to NW swell is leading to rough seas west 
of 119N. Peak seas are near 11 ft from 10N to 20N west of 130W. 

For the forecast, the long-period NW swell will promote rough
seas west of 115W through midweek. Peak seas near 11 ft are 
likely in the far western waters. Seas will subside north of 20N 
through Tue, and south of 20N by late week. Otherwise, high 
pressure will dominate the eastern Pacific, supporting light to 
gentle winds north of 20N through midweek. A tradewind regime 
will prevail south of 20N, with moderate to locally fresh trade 
winds occurring west of 110W. Looking ahead, strengthening gap 
winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and the Gulf of Papagayo will 
promote fresh NE winds north of 07N and east of 100W over the 
next few days. Locally rough seas in NE swell will accompany the 
winds.

$$
ADAMS