000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020935
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Dec 2 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0925 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong ridge over the western
Gulf of Mexico is forcing strong to gale force N winds and this
pattern is expected to continue into late this week. These winds
are generating rough to very rough seas, peaking near 15 ft on 
Wed. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at the website 
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 
10N85W to 07N106W. The ITCZ stretches from 07N106W to 07N128W. 
Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 10N and 
east of 107W. Similar convection is noted from 06N to 10N and 
between 115W and 125W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section above for information 
on gale-force N gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

A strong ridge over the western United States supports moderate
to locally fresh NW winds in the central and southern Gulf of 
California. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer
satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. Moderate or 
weaker winds are occurring in the rest of the Gulf of California
and the offshore waters of Baja California. Seas are 3-6 ft in 
the Baja California offshore waters and 1-3 ft in the northern 
Gulf of California. 

Outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, the satellite-derived winds
also showed locally fresh northerly winds off Cabo Corrientes. Moderate
or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent in the remaining offshore
waters of SW Mexico.

For the forecast, aside from gale-force winds in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, moderate to locally fresh NW winds will continue in
the Gulf of California early this week as troughing prevails in 
the region. Elsewhere, building high pressure in the eastern 
Pacific will lead to gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas 
across the remainder of the Mexico offshore waters this week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen in the 
offshore waters of Colombia and Panama, especially east of 84W.
A scatterometer satellite pass captured near gale-force winds in
association with the strongest convection. Mariners can also
expect higher seas. 

Meanwhile, a strong ridge north of the region is supporting 
fresh to strong easterly trade winds across the Gulf of Papagayo 
and downstream to 89W. Seas in these waters are 4-5 ft. Moderate
to locally fresh S-SW winds and 4-6 ft seas prevail south of the
monsoon trough, and gentle to locally moderate NE winds and 3-5 
ft seas are occurring elsewhere.

For the forecast, tight pressure gradient will support fresh to
strong easterly winds across the Papagayo region through most of
the week. These winds will spread downstream reaching to near 92W.
Seas will build to 8 ft by Wed. Farther west, rough seas induced
by gale-force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will enter waters
well offshore of Guatemala on Mon and continue through late this
week. Otherwise, gentle to locally moderate S-SW winds and 
moderate seas will occur south of the monsoon trough through 
late-week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that moderate to fresh
easterly trade winds are occurring south of 20N. Seas in these 
waters are 7-10 ft west of 115W and 4-7 ft east of 115W. The rest
of the tropical eastern Pacific is under a broad subtropical
ridge promoting moderate or weaker winds and moderate to rough 
seas.

For the forecast, long-period NW swell will expand rough seas to
areas north of 05N and west of 120W early this week. Seas are 
peaking near 10-11 ft in the far W waters. Seas will subside by 
mid to late-week. Otherwise, high pressure will dominate the 
eastern Pacific, supporting light to gentle winds north of 20N 
through this week. A tradewind regime will prevail south of 20N,
with moderate to locally fresh trade winds occurring west of 
110W. Looking ahead, strengthening gap winds in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec and the Gulf of Papagayo will promote fresh NE winds 
north of 08N and east of 100W over the next few days. Locally 
rough seas in NE swell will accompany the winds.

$$
Delgado