000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020335
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Dec 2 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0325 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong ridge settling in the
western Gulf of Mexico continues to force strong to near gale- 
force N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds will increase to
gale force later tonight and continue into late this week. These
winds are generating rough seas and forecast to build to very
rough in the next couple of days, peaking near 15 ft on Wed. 
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at the website 
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 
10N85W to 06N101W. The ITCZ stretches from 06N101W to 08N128W. 
Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 10N and 
between 88W and 105W. Similar convection is noted from 07N to 
11N and between 115W and 125W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See Special Features section above for information on gale-force
gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

An extensive ridge over the western United States extends
southward into northern Mexico and the offshore waters of Baja
California. This ridge is forcing moderate to locally fresh NE
winds in the central and southern Gulf of California. Seas in
these waters are 3-5 ft. Moderate or weaker winds are found in
the rest of the Gulf of California and the offshore waters of
Baja California. Seas are 3-5 ft in the Baja California offshore
waters and 1-3 ft in the northern Gulf of California. 

Outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, aside from gale-force winds redeveloping in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight, moderate to locally fresh NW winds 
will continue in the Gulf of California early this week as 
troughing prevails in the region. Elsewhere, building high 
pressure in the eastern Pacific will lead to gentle to moderate 
winds and moderate seas across the remainder of the Mexico 
offshore waters this week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continues to affect
the offshore waters of Colombia and Panama, especially east of
82W. High pressure north of the region is supporting moderate to
fresh easterly trade winds across the Gulf of Papagayo and
downstream to 90W. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. Otherwise, 
moderate S-SW winds and 4-6 ft seas prevail south of the monsoon
trough, and gentle to locally moderate NE winds and 3-5 ft seas 
are occurring elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh NE winds in the Gulf of Papagayo will 
increase to strong speeds Mon evening as the pressure gradient
tightens in the Caribbean. These strong winds will continue to 
pulse through at least midweek. Rough seas induced by gale- 
force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec may enter waters well 
offshore of Guatemala on Mon as gales redevelop in the region. 
Otherwise, gentle to locally moderate S-SW winds and moderate 
seas will occur south of the monsoon trough through late-week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The subtropical ridge dominates the tropical eastern Pacific,
supporting moderate to fresh easterly trade winds south of 22N.
Seas in these waters are 7-10 ft west of 115W and 4-7 ft east of
115W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate to rough
seas prevail.

For the forecast, a long-period NW swell will expand rough seas
to areas north of 05N and west of 125W early this week. Seas 
are peaking near 10 ft in the far W waters. Seas will subside by
mid to late-week. Otherwise, high pressure will dominate the 
eastern Pacific, supporting light to gentle winds north of 22N 
through this week. A tradewind regime will prevail south of 22N,
with moderate to locally fresh trade winds occurring west of 
110W. Looking ahead, strengthening gap winds in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec and the Gulf of Papagayo will promote fresh NE winds 
north of 08N and east of 100W by mid-week. Locally rough seas in 
NE swell will accompany the winds.

$$
Delgado