000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012147
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Dec 1 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong to near gale-force N 
winds and very rough seas will continue this evening in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec as high pressure settles into the western Gulf of
Mexico. Gales are likely to redevelop later tonight as another 
cold front and stronger high pressure move S into the Gulf of 
Mexico. These gales and associated very rough seas may continue 
through late this week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from near 10N86W to 06N101W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N101W to beyond 12N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is occurring from 07N to 10N between 88W and 91W, 
from 05N to 09N between 96W and 101W and from 08N to 10N between
116W and 123W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See Special Features section above for information on gale-force
gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

A trough has been analyzed over northwestern Mexico and into the
Gulf of California, and a 1022 mb high is centered near 30N123W.
The pressure gradient between these features supports moderate 
to locally fresh NW winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft in the Gulf of 
California. Elsewhere, weak ridging prevails over the remainder 
of the Mexico offshore waters, supporting gentle to moderate N to
NW winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, aside from gale-force winds redeveloping in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight, moderate to locally fresh NW winds 
will continue in the Gulf of California early this week as 
troughing prevails in the region. Elsewhere, building high 
pressure in the eastern Pacific will lead to gentle to moderate 
winds and moderate seas across the remainder of the Mexico 
offshore waters this week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring offshore of
Colombia, and strong winds and rough seas are likely near the 
strongest convection. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong NE winds
are noted in the Gulf of Papagayo. Otherwise, moderate S to SW 
winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail south of the monsoon trough, and
gentle to locally moderate NE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are 
occurring to the north of the trough.

For the forecast, fresh NE winds in the Gulf of Papagayo will 
increase to strong speeds Mon evening as the pressure gradient 
between low pressure in the south-central Caribbean and building 
high pressure in the Gulf of Mexico tightens. These strong winds 
will continue to pulse through at least mid-week. Rough seas 
induced by gale-force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec may enter
waters well offshore of Guatemala on Mon as gales redevelop in 
the region. Otherwise, gentle to locally moderate S to SW winds 
and moderate seas will occur south of the monsoon trough through 
late-week, with gentle to locally moderate NE winds and moderate 
seas occurring north of the trough. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1022 mb high is centered near 30N123W, and ridging prevails 
across the waters north of the ITCZ. Gentle to locally moderate 
winds are occurring north of 20N. Farther south, moderate to 
locally fresh E to NE winds are occurring south of 20N to the
ITCZ. A long-period NW swell is producing seas of 8 to 10 ft 
north of 07N and west of 130W. South of the ITCZ, moderate to 
locally fresh S to SE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail.

For the forecast, a long-period NW swell will expand rough seas
to areas north of 05N and west of 125W early this week. Seas 
will peak near 10 ft in the far W waters. Seas will subside by 
mid to late-week. Otherwise, high pressure will dominate the 
eastern Pacific, supporting light to gentle winds north of 20N 
through this week. A tradewind regime will prevail south of 20N, 
with moderate to locally fresh trade winds occurring west of 
110W. Looking ahead, strengthening gap winds in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec and the Gulf of Papagayo will promote fresh NE winds 
north of 08N and east of 100W by mid-week. Locally rough seas in 
NE swell will accompany the winds.

$$
ADAMS