887 
AXPZ20 KNHC 302145
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Nov 30 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Near gale-force winds are
occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec as a stationary front
lingers in the Bay of Campeche, and relatively colder air 
funnels through the Chivela Pass. Very rough seas, peaking near 
12 ft, accompany the wind. Similar conditions are expected 
through the day on Sun before winds restrengthen to gale-force 
Sun night and continue through the middle of next week. Please 
read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at the website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from near 10N85W to 06N98W. The ITCZ 
continues from 06N98W to 12N127W, and resumes near 12N131W to
beyond 10N140W. A 1012 mb low is centered near 13N129W. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring from 09N to 14N between 120W and
129W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See Special Features section above for information on gale-force
gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Recent scatterometer satellite data show moderate to locally
fresh NW winds in the Gulf of California, supported by the
pressure gradient between a trough analyzed over northwestern
Mexico and a 1019 mb high centered near 29N121W. Elsewhere, weak
ridging prevails across the remainder of the Mexico offshore 
waters, supporting light to gentle winds and moderate seas.

For the forecast, away from the direct impacts of gap winds in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec, persistent troughing in the Gulf of 
California will support moderate, to at times fresh NW winds 
into early next week. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and 
moderate seas will prevail across the rest of the Mexico offshore
waters through the middle of next week as high pressure builds 
in the eastern Pacific. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh NE winds are occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo. Otherwise,
gentle to locally moderate NE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft 
prevail north of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate SE 
to SW winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft occurring to the south of the 
trough.

For the forecast, fresh NE winds will pulse in the Gulf of
Papagayo this weekend. The tightening pressure gradient between
low pressure in the south-central Caribbean and building high
pressure in the Gulf of Mexico will lead to more persistent fresh
to strong NE winds in this region Mon through at least the middle
of next week. Locally rough seas will occur near the strongest
winds. Elsewhere, rough seas induced by gale-force winds in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec will enter waters well offshore Guatemala 
today before seas subside late tonight. Rough seas could impact 
this region again early next week as gap winds restrengthen. 
Otherwise, gentle to locally moderate S to SW winds and moderate 
seas will occur south of the monsoon trough through next week, 
with gentle to locally moderate NE winds and moderate seas 
occurring north of the trough. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1014 mb low is centered north of the area near 32N140W and a
trough extends from the low to 30N128W. Moderate S winds are
occurring to the south of the trough near 25N. Elsewhere, weak 
ridging prevails north of the ITCZ, supporting gentle to locally 
moderate winds north of 18N. South of 18N to the ITCZ, moderate 
to locally fresh E to NE trade winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are 
noted. South of the ITCZ, moderate to fresh SE winds and seas of 
5 to 7 ft prevail. 

For the forecast, the aforementioned low pressure will dissipate
later today. Building high pressure over the eastern Pacific will
support light to gentle winds and moderate seas north of 20N
through next week. A moderate trade regime will prevail south of
20N, with moderate to locally fresh trade winds occurring west 
of 110W through the middle of next week. A long-period NW swell 
will promote rough seas north of 20N and west of 135W by tonight,
with rough seas expanding to areas north of 05N and west of 125W
Sun into early next week. Seas will peak near 10 ft in the far 
NW waters.

$$
ADAMS