000 AXPZ20 KNHC 290804 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Nov 29 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure building into the western Gulf of Mexico will usher in strong northerly gap winds into the Gulf of Tehunatepec today. These winds will increase to gale-force by this evening, with gale conditions then prevailing into the middle of next week. The gales will induce very rough seas, with peak seas approaching 15 ft early next week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from near 10N85W to 07N98W. The ITCZ stretches from 07N98W to 11N119W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 06N to 09N and east of 88W and from 07N to 12N and between 120W to 139W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features section above for information on gale-force gap winds that will develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec this evening. High pressure centered over the western United States is forcing fresh NW winds down the Gulf of California. Seas in these waters are 3 to 6 ft. Fresh gap winds have also developed in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail across the remainder of offshore waters as a weak pressure gradient dominates. For the forecast, aside from the gale in the Tehuantepec region, high pressure building in from the western United States will continue to support fresh NW winds in the Gulf of California through Sat. Elsewhere, fairly benign marine conditions will prevail. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate SW winds are observed south of the monsoon trough. Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft due to cross equatorial swell. Mainly gentle winds and seas of 4-6 ft prevail across the remainder of the offshore waters. Scattered moderate convection has moved offshore Costa Rica and western Panama overnight. For the forecast, fresh winds will begin to pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo tonight, then gradually increase to strong by Sun night. Rough seas induced by gale-force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will enter waters well offshore Guatemala this weekend, and will likely continue well into next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1010 mb low pressure near 32N138W supports moderate to locally fresh S winds north of 26N between 128W and 138W. Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft. Scattered moderate convection is also noted along a surface trough extending south from the low to about 26N. In the trade wind area, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are noted south of 19N to the ITCZ and west of 115W. These winds are producing seas of 5 to 7 ft. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds and seas of 5-7 ft are noted south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the aforementioned low pressure will weaken into the weekend as it meanders in the far NW waters, before dissipating by Sun night. The associated moderate to fresh winds near it will diminish to gentle by Sat night. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh trade winds will prevail west of 110W and S of 16N into the middle of next week, along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Looking ahead, a long- period NW swell will promote rough seas north of 05N and west of 130W this weekend through early next week. Seas will peak near 10 ft in the far NW waters. $$ Konarik