000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282202
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Nov 28 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2135 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Building high pressure over the
western Gulf of Mexico behind a cold front will force strong N 
winds into the Gulf of Tehuantepec early on Fri, with winds 
reaching gale-force Fri night through early next week. Rough to 
very rough seas, peaking near 14 ft, can also be expected. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at the website 
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 
10N85W to 07N98W. The ITCZ stretches from 07N98W to 11N119W and a
1011 mb low pres is near 11N121W. The ITCZ then continues from 
09N124W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is 
present from 05N to 09N and east of 92W. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is observed from 07N to 12N and 
between 118W to 136W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See Special Features section above for information on gale-force
gap winds that will develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri night.

A strong ridge over the western United States is forcing moderate
to occasionally strong northerly winds across the northern and
central Gulf of California. This was confirmed by a recent 
scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 2-4 ft.
Weaker winds and slight seas prevail in the southern Gulf of
California. Gentle to moderate northerly winds and seas of 4-5 ft
are noted across the offshore waters of Baja California. Elsewhere,
including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, light to locally moderate
winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, aside from the forecast gale in the 
Tehuantepec region, the tightening pressure gradient between 
building high pressure offshore of Baja California and low 
pressure over northern Mexico will continue to support moderate 
to occasionally fresh NW winds north of Cabo San Lazaro into Sat.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Primarily moderate southerly winds are observed south of the
monsoon trough, especially north of the equator. Seas in these
waters are 5-7 ft due to cross equatorial swell. Elsewhere, 
moderate NE winds are pulsing in the Gulf of Papagayo. Otherwise,
gentle winds and seas of 4-6 ft prevail across the remainder of 
the offshore waters.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NE winds pulsing in 
the Gulf of Papagayo will diminish tonight, before pulsing again
Fri. More persistent winds will develop in this region by Sat 
night, with fresh NE winds expected early next week. Cross 
equatorial SW swell leading to locally rough seas offshore of 
Colombia and Panama will subside tonight. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak low pressure of 1010 mb near 32N138W supports moderate
cyclonic winds north of 22N and west of 130W. Seas in these
waters are 4-6 ft. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are
found in the trade waters south of 20N to the ITCZ and west of
115W. These winds are producing seas of 5-7 ft. Meanwhile, moderate
to locally S-SW fresh winds and seas of 5-7 ft are noted south of
the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds
and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the aforementioned low pressure will move 
slowly eastward today before lifting northward. This will 
support moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds ahead of this 
system, mainly north of 25N between 128W and 140W. Elsewhere, 
moderate to locally fresh trade winds will prevail west of 110W 
and S of 16N through early next week. Looking ahead, a long- 
period NW swell will promote rough seas north of 05N and west of 
130W this weekend through early next week.

$$
Delgado