000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281603
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Nov 28 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery
through 1555 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Building high pressure over the
western Gulf of Mexico behind a cold front will force strong N 
winds into the Gulf of Tehuantepec early on Fri, with winds 
reaching gale-force Fri night through Sat. Strong N winds will 
prevail in the region through early next week. Rough to very 
rough seas, peaking near 13 ft early Sat, can also be expected. 
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at the website 
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 
10N85W to 07N107W. The ITCZ stretches from 07N107W to beyond 08N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is present from 05N to 09N and east
of 91W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 
observed from 06N to 12N and between 115W to 135W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See Special Features section above for information on gale-force
gap winds that will develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri night.

Weak ridging extends southeastward into the Revillagigedo 
Islands supporting mainly moderate northerly winds across the
offshore waters of Baja California. Seas in these waters are 4-6
ft. Recent satellite imagery depict widespread mid to upper 
level cloudiness over much of the region north of Punta Eugenia 
associated with frontal systems north of the area. Moderate to 
locally fresh northerly winds are occurring in the northern Gulf 
of California, along with seas of 1-2 ft. Weaker winds and seas 
of 2-4 ft are noted in the remainder of the Gulf. Elsewhere, 
including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, light to locally moderate and 
moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, aside from the forecast gale in the 
Tehuantepec region, the tightening pressure gradient between 
building high pressure offshore of Baja California and low 
pressure over northern Mexico will support moderate to
occasionally fresh NW winds north of Cabo San Lazaro today, and 
fresh NW winds in the Gulf of California through Sat.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The pressure gradient between a weakening high pressure over the
SE Pacific and the monsoon trough supports moderate to locally 
fresh S to SW winds from the equator northward to 08N and east of
93W. Seas of 5 to 7 ft in cross equatorial SW swell prevail in 
this area. Elsewhere, moderate NE winds are pulsing in the Gulf 
of Papagayo. Otherwise, gentle winds and seas of 4-6 ft prevail 
across the remainder of the offshore waters.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NE winds will pulse 
in the Gulf of Papagayo today. More persistent winds will 
develop in this region by Sat night, with fresh NE winds 
expected early next week. Cross equatorial SW swell leading to 
locally rough seas offshore of Colombia and Panama will subside 
today. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak low pressure of 1010 mb near 32N138W supports moderate
cyclonic winds north of 22N and west of 130W. Seas in these
waters are 4-6 ft. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are
found in the trade waters south of 20N to the ITCZ and west of
115W. These winds are producing seas of 5-7 ft. Meanwhile, moderate
to locally S-SW fresh winds and seas of 5-7 ft are noted south of
the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds
and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the aforementioned low pressure will move 
slowly eastward today before lifting northward. This will 
support moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds ahead of this 
system, mainly north of 25N between 128W and 140W. Elsewhere, 
moderate to locally fresh trade winds will prevail west of 110W 
and S of 16N through early next week. Looking ahead, a long- 
period NW swell will promote rough seas north of 05N and west of 
130W this weekend through early next week.

$$
Delgado