174 
AXPZ20 KNHC 271555
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Nov 27 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 07N99W. The ITCZ
continues from 07N99W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to
locally strong convection is occurring from 09N to 11N between 
113W and 117W, and from 08N to 10N between 125W and 132W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong to near gale-force N winds are occurring in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec as high pressure prevails over central Mexico. 
Elsewhere, ridging dominates the remainder of the Mexico offshore
waters, with gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft 
observed. Seas of 1 to 3 ft are occurring in central and northern
portions of the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds will pulse in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec today, and rough to very rough seas will accompany
the winds. Conditions will improve by Thu. The tightening 
pressure gradient between building high pressure offshore of Baja
California and upper-level low pressure moving through the 
southwestern United States will support moderate to locally fresh
NW winds north of Cabo San Lazaro tonight into Thu, and fresh to
locally strong NW winds in the Gulf of California Thu into this 
weekend. Looking ahead, strong N winds look to redevelop in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec again on Fri, with winds reaching gale-force 
Fri night through Sat. Strong N winds will prevail in the region 
through early next week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft in
cross equatorial SW swell prevail from 01N to 06N east of 90W. 
Fresh NE winds are pulsing in the Gulf of Papagayo. Otherwise, 
gentle to locally moderate winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail 
across the remainder of the offshore waters.

For the forecast, moderate NE winds will continue to pulse in 
the Gulf of Papagayo into Thu. More persistent winds will 
develop in this region this weekend, with moderate to fresh NE 
winds expected. NE swell generated by strong offshore winds in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec will promote locally rough seas offshore 
of Guatemala through tonight. Cross equatorial SW swell leading 
to locally rough seas offshore of Colombia and Panama will 
subside by early Thu. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will 
prevail north of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate S 
to SW winds occurring south of the trough. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1021 mb high is centered near 30N122W, and ridging extends
across the waters north of the ITCZ, promoting gentle to locally
moderate winds north of 16N. Moderate SW winds are occurring
north of 25N and west of 135W ahead of low pressure passing north
of 30N. Elsewhere, fresh NE winds are noted near a trough 
analyzed from 08N130W to 15N128W, with moderate to locally fresh 
NE winds occurring south of 16N and west of 115W. Seas are 6 to 8
ft in this region. South of the ITCZ, moderate SE winds and 
moderate seas prevail, though localized seas to 8 ft are noted 
near the ITCZ.

For the forecast, low pressure centered near 31N142W will move
slowly eastward through Fri before lifting northward. This will
support moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds ahead of this
system, mainly north of 25N between 128W and 140W, through Fri.
Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh trade winds will prevail
west of 110W into early next week. Looking ahead, a long-period
NW swell will promote rough seas north of 10N and west of 130W
this weekend into early next week.

$$
ADAMS