000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260812
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Nov 26 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on |0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery 
through 0800 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to near 10N117W to 
11N134W. The ITCZ extends from 10N135W to beyond 11N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 12N between 110W and
133W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong gap winds are increasing in the Tehuantepec 
region. Otherwise, a surface ridge, anchored by 1022 mb high 
pressure near 28N121W west of Punta Eugenia, is supporting 
gentle to locally moderate breezes and moderate combined seas 
primarily NW swell across open waters, with slight seas over the 
Gulf of California.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds across the Tehuantepec
area will increase to near gale-force by tonight, with these 
winds and rough to very rough seas prevailing into Wed. Winds 
and seas will then diminish, but similar conditions will develop 
starting Fri. Gales are possible Fri night and again late this 
weekend as a series of cold front moves through the western Gulf 
of Mexico. Farther north, a surface ridge, anchored by 1022 mb 
high pressure near 28N121W west of Punta Eugenia, will remain in 
place throughout the week to support gentle to moderate NW to N 
winds across the Baja California offshore waters. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

SW swell of 6 to 8 ft is moving through the offshore waters of 
Ecuador and Colombia, toward the waters off western Panama and 
Costa Rica. Gentle to moderate SW winds persist south of the 
monsoon trough, and light to gentle breezes prevail north of the 
monsoon trough. 

For the forecast, light winds will prevail N of the monsoon
trough, except for occasional pulses of gentle to moderate gap
winds in the Papagayo region. Gentle to moderate SW to W winds 
will prevail south of the monsoon trough. NE swell from gap winds
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will support combined seas to 8 ft 
off Guatemala into tonight. Elsewhere, cross equatorial SW swell
is moving into the regional waters, supporting wave heights to 8
ft from Ecuador to Costa Rica and western Panama through tonight,
subsiding thereafter. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Weak ridging extends across the waters north of 15N, anchored by
1022 mb high pressure near 28N121W. Moderate to fresh SW winds 
are noted over the waters north of 25N and west of 135W, between 
the high pressure and the low pressure to the northwest. Seas are
7 to 9 ft in this area. The relatively weak ridge is supporting 
gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere across the region. Combined 
seas are 6 to 9 ft primarily in southerly swell S of 10N and E of
130W, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere.

Low pressure just NW of the region will slowly move ESE into the
far NW waters through the middle of the week, as a cold front 
forms southward from the low. Despite this, a  relaxed pressure 
gradient will keep winds mainly moderate or less as well as seas 
below 8 ft through the week.

$$
Konarik