000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251556
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Nov 25 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 1011 mb low pressure
near 09N116W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is active
from 09N to 11N between 103W and 105W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

An overnight scatterometer satellite pass confirmed fresh gap
winds were still pulsing across the Gulf of Tehuantepec this
morning. Elsewhere, 1020 mb high pressure centered off southern
California is supporting gentle to moderate breezes and moderate
combined seas primarily NW swell across open waters, with slight
seas over the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, a weak surface ridge west of the area 
extending to near the Revillagigedo Islands will remain in place 
throughout the week to support gentle to locally moderate NW to N
winds across the Baja California offshore waters. Moderate N 
winds across the Tehuantepec area this morning will increase to 
strong to near gale-force tonight, Tue night, and then again Fri 
and Fri night with gale-force winds possible. Moderate S swell 
will move through the area waters from Cabo Corrientes eastward 
Mon night through Wed.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds, and seas of 3-5 ft, dominate N of the 
monsoon trough. S of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate SW to
W winds and seas of 3-5 ft prevail. 

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh gap winds will 
prevail across the Papagayo region through Mon night then 
diminish. Otherwise, light to gentle winds are expected N of the 
monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate SW to W winds will prevail 
south of the monsoon trough, increasing briefly to moderate to 
fresh on Wed. Cross equatorial SW swell moving into the regional
waters this morning will increase seas to 8 ft between Ecuador, 
Colombia and the Galapagos Islands through the middle of the 
week. The swell will propagate northward, increasing seas to 7 ft
elsewhere Mon evening through Wed. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Weak ridging extends across the waters north of 15N, anchored by
1020 mb high pressure off southern California, and south of a
stalled frontal boundary extending east-to-west just north of 
the region to a 1006 mb low pressure centered near 31N144W.. 
Moderate to locally fresh SW winds are noted over the waters 
north of 25N and west of 135W, between the high pressure and the
low pressure to the northwest. Seas are 7 to 8 ft in this area.
The relatively weak ridge is supporting gentle to moderate
breezes across the region. Combined seas are 6 to 9 ft primarily
in southerly swell, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the stationary front across the NW waters will
meander along 30N-31N and west of 130W for the next few days, 
while low pressure forms along the front just NW of the area 
waters, and slowly drift eastward into the area late Wed through 
Fri. This will maintain moderate to fresh SW winds and seas 
around 8 ft across the waters north of 25N and west of 130W through
late Tue. To the south, moderate to locally fresh trade winds 
will 1516N and east of 130W Mon through early Wed.

$$
Christensen