000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241500
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Nov 24 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 08N90W to 10N129W. The
ITCZ continues from 10N129W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 96W and 
122W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A 1021 mb high pressure is centered over southern Mexico near
18N97W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure
and lower pressure within the EPAC monsoon trough is supporting
fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning. 
Elsewhere, a 1019 mb high pressure is centered near 29N127W. A 
weak and benign cold front is moving slowly eastward extending 
across the northern Baja California waters, with little change in
winds. A trough of low pressure is across the Gulf of 
California. The pressure gradient between the area of high 
pressure and the surface trough is supporting gentle to moderate 
winds across the waters W of the Baja California peninsula, where
seas are in the 5-7 ft range. Light to gentle winds, and seas of
5-6 ft prevail over the remainder of the open waters off Mexico.
Light to gentle winds, and seas of 1-3 ft, are over the Gulf of 
California. 

For the forecast, strong N winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
will diminish today. Elsewhere, a weak surface ridge centered W 
of the area will remain in control of the weather pattern across 
the regional waters W of 105W through the middle of next week, 
supporting gentle to locally moderate NW to N winds. Strong to 
near gale-force N winds will return to Tehuantepec Mon night 
through Wed morning before diminishing. Moderate S swell will 
move through the area waters from Cabo Corrientes eastward Mon 
night through Wed. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to locally strong winds are noted over and downwind the
Gulf of Papagayo, where seas of 6-7 ft are noted. Light to gentle
winds, and seas of 5-6 ft, prevail elsewhere N of the monsoon
trough. S of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate winds, and
seas of 4-5 ft, prevail. 

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are 
expected across the Papagayo region today, as high pressure 
persists across the NW Caribbean and northern Central America. 
Elsewhere, gentle to locally moderate winds will prevail through 
Wed. Cross equatorial SW swell is expected to move into the 
regional waters Sun night, increasing seas to 8 ft between 
Ecuador, Colombia and the Galapagos Islands, and to 7 ft 
elsewhere, early Mon through Wed. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds
will develop between the Galapagos Islands and Colombia the 
middle of the week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1019 mb high pressure is centered near 29N127W. A weak and 
benign cold front is moving slowly eastward extending across the 
northern Baja California waters to the waters S of the high
center. A second cold front is over the far NW waters. The
pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and the
second cold front is supporting moderate to fresh winds E of the
front. NW swell behind the front is producing seas of 8-9 ft 
over the far NW waters. The pressure gradient between the area of
high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough and 
in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate trades, and 
seas of 6-8 ft, from 10N to 20N and W of 110W. Moderate to fresh 
winds, and seas of 6-8 ft are south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. 

For the forecast, the high pressure center will drift NE through
Mon then become stationary, as the weak front dissipates today. 
The second front across the NW waters along 30N will meander W 
of 130W for the next few days, while low pressure forms along the
front just NW of the area waters. This will maintain moderate to
fresh SW winds and seas around 8 ft across these NW waters 
through late Tue. To the south, moderate to locally fresh trade 
winds will continue south of 18N, with moderate seas through Thu.
Cross equatorial S to SW swell will move north of the equator 
Sun night and raise seas to 7 to 9 ft across the waters S of 18N 
and E of 125W Mon through early Wed.

$$
AL