000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240248 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Nov 24 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from near 10N75W to 08.5N96W to 11.5N122W to 11N124W. The ITCZ continues from 11N124W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 91W and 105W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07.5N to 13N W of 128W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure extending from Gulf of Mexico into the northwestern Caribbean is weakening and shifting eastward this evening, allowing the pressure gradient to the south to weaken sufficiently so that northerly winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec continue to slowly diminish from recent days. However, strong N gap winds to near 30 kt and peak seas of 10-11 ft continue there. Elsewhere, a broad ridge, anchored by a weakening 1017 mb high pressure centered near 25N125W dominates the offshore waters of Baja California and waters W of 105W. This pattern is promoting gentle to locally moderate winds across the Baja California offshore waters, where seas are 4 to 7 ft in NW swell north of 20N. Light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in mixed swell prevail elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters to the south and southeast, except for 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, strong N winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will gradually diminish through Sun. Elsewhere, the weak surface ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the area waters W of 105W through the middle of next week, supporting gentle to locally moderate NW to N winds. The high pressure will weaken through Mon as a weak cold front approaches the Baja Norte offshore waters from the NW. Strong to near gale-force N winds will return to Tehuantepec Mon night through Tue night before diminishing. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds continue across the offshore waters of Colombia and Ecuador, where seas are 4 to 6 ft in mixed swell. Elsewhere, light to gentle generally onshore winds prevail S of 10N. Mostly gentle offshore winds are now across the waters N of 10N, except fresh NE winds streaming offshore of the Papagayo area extending offshore to near 90W, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. For the forecast, offshore gap winds N of 10N will continue through Sun, with fresh to strong NE to E winds expected across the Papagayo region, as high pressure persists across the NW Caribbean and northern Central America. Elsewhere, gentle to locally moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail through Tue. Cross equatorial SW swell is expected to move into the regional waters Sun night, increasing seas to 8 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere early Mon into early Wed. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds are expected to develop between the Galapagos Islands and Colombia Wed. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak surface ridge dominates most of the waters N of 10N and W of 105W, producing light to gentle anticyclonic flow north of 17N. A slow moving cold front extends from 30N122W to 25N136W. Seas behind this front are 7 to 8 ft in NW swell. A second front has become stationary across the NW waters, along 30N to the west of 133W. Scattered moderate thunderstorms are occurring along the front. Moderate NE trade winds prevail south of the ridge between the ITCZ and 17N, and W of 115W, where seas are 6 to 8 ft in NW swell. Moderate southerly monsoonal winds and seas prevail to the south of 10N. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted in satellite imagery near the ITCZ, from 07.5N to 13N W of 128W, supported by an upper level trough in the deep tropics, just to the W of 140W. For the forecast, the high pressure will drift SW and weaken slightly through Sun, as the front becomes stationary across the Baja Norte waters and dissipates. NW swell accompanying the front will subside to 8 ft or less tonight, before another front moves along about 30N across the NW waters and meanders tonight through Tue. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are expected through Tue. $$ Stripling