727 AXPZ20 KNHC 230913 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Nov 23 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A surface ridge extending across the western Gulf of Mexico continues across southeastern Mexico and northern Central America, behind a cold front across the W Caribbean. The pressure gradient continues to support minimal gale-force N winds across the Tehuantepec region, with peak seas currently estimated at 13 ft. These winds and seas are expected to persist through this morning, then will diminish to strong winds Sat afternoon then continue to gradually diminish through Sun. Marine interests transiting across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Sat morning should take the necessary action to avoid hazardous marine conditions over these affected waters. For more details, please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from near 11N76W to 10.5N82W to 07.5N100W to 12.5N118W to 11N121W. The ITCZ continues from 11N121W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted N of 05N E of 85W, from 05.5N to 09N between 88W and 102W, and from 07.5N to 10N W of 125W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please, see the Special Features section above for more details. A broad ridge, anchored by a 1019 mb high pressure centered near 27N124W dominates the offshore waters of Baja California and waters W of 105W. This pattern is promoting gentle to moderate winds across the Baja California offshore waters where seas are 5 to 8 ft in NW swell north of 20N. Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail in the central and southern Gulf of California. Seas there are 2 to 4 ft. Light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft in mixed swell dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, gale-force N winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will begin to gradually diminish mid-morning through Sun. Elsewhere, a weak surface ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the area waters W of 105W through the middle of next week, supporting gentle to moderate NW to N winds. Moderate NW swell dominating area seas will subside through the weekend. The high pressure will weaken Sun through Mon as a weak cold front approaches the Baja Norte offshore waters from the NW. Strong to near gale-force N winds will return to Tehuantepec Tue and Tue night before diminishing. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds continue across the offshore waters of Colombia and Ecuador, where seas are 4 to 6 ft in mixed swell. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection continues across the area waters N of 05N and E of 85W, fueled by these winds. Elsewhere, gentle generally onshore winds prevail S of 10N. Light to gentle offshore winds are now across the waters N of 10N, with fresh to locally strong NE winds streaming offshore of the Papagayo area extending offshore to near 88W . For the forecast, NW swell generated by the gale-force winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will impact the far western Guatemala offshore waters today. Offshore gap winds N of 10N will continue through Sun evening, with fresh to strong NE to E winds expected across the Papagayo region through early Sun, as high pressure persists across the NW Caribbean and northern Central America. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail through Tue. Cross equatorial SW swell is expected to move into the regional waters Sun night, increasing seas to 8 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere early Mon through early Wed. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds are expected to develop between the Galapagos Islands and Colombia Wed. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Surface ridging dominates most of the N waters N of 10N and W of 105W, producing light to gentle anticyclonic flow. A cold front in the NW waters extends from 30N128W to 25N140W. Moderate SW winds are ahead of the front covering the forecast waters N of 27.5N and W of 125W. Seas there are 8 to 11 ft in NW swell. Swell generated north of the front is propagating across much of the waters N of 22W of 115W with seas of 7 to 8 ft in NW to N swell. Gentle to moderate NE to E trade winds prevail between 10N and 20N W of 110W, where seas are 6 to 8 ft in NW swell. For the forecast, the high pressure will drift SW and weaken slightly through Sun, ahead of the cold front. The front will reach from 30N124W to 25N140W by Sat afternoon while weakening. NW swell accompanying the from will subside to 8 ft or less Sat night, before another front moves along about 30N across the NW waters and meanders through Tue. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are expected through Tue. $$ Stripling