000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220303 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Nov 22 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0220 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A ridge extending along the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico, and across the western Gulf of Mexico continues to build across southeastern Mexico and northern Central America, behind a cold front across the NW Caribbean. This pressure gradient supports N winds to 40 kt across the Tehuantepec region, with gale-force winds extending southward of the Gulf to 13.5N. Afternoon altimeter data showed seas near 15 ft, and are assumed to still be occurring. Gale-force winds of 35 to 40 kt and rough to very rough seas are expected to persist through near midday Sat before diminishing. Large seas generated from this strong gap wind event will spread well away from the Tehuantepec area, with seas 8 ft or greater reaching as far south as 08N by Fri morning. Marine interests transiting across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Sat morning should take the necessary action to avoid hazardous marine conditions over these affected waters. For more details, please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from near 10N73W to 11.5N87W to 11N100W to 13N115W to 10N120W. The ITCZ continues from 10N120W to beyond 10N140W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 01.5N to 07N between 78W and 83W, and from 08.5N to 11N between 123W and 129W. A cluster of moderate to strong convection covers the area from 09N to 13N between 98W and 101W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please. see the Special Features section above for more details. A broad ridge, anchored by a 1020 mb high pressure located near 29N123W, dominates the offshore waters of Baja California. This pattern is promoting light to gentle winds across the Baja California offshore waters where seas are 5 to 8 ft in NW swell, highest N of Punta Eugenia, and 9 ft NW and W of Isla Guadalupe. Elsewhere, the tight pressure gradient between the ridge and a trough in northwestern Mexico is supporting fresh NW winds in the central Gulf of California. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across the central and southern part of the Gulf while seas of 2 to 4 ft area noted over the northern Gulf. Light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft in mixed swell dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, gale-force winds will persist across the Tehuantepec area through midday Sat before diminishing Sat afternoon through Sun. Elsewhere, 1020 mb high pressure centered W of Baja California near 29N123W will remain in control of the weather pattern across the Baja waters through the upcoming weekend, supporting gentle to moderate NW winds. Moderate NW swell will dominate area seas through Fri morning before subsiding into the weekend. The high pressure will weaken Sun through Mon as a weak cold front approaches the Baja offshore waters from the NW. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Afternoon satellite derived scatterometer wind data indicated gentle to moderate southerly winds across the offshore waters of southern Colombia and Ecuador where seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range. Moderate convection continues across these waters E of 83W, fueled by these winds. Elsewhere, light to gentle generally onshore winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail. For the forecast, seas generated by the current gale-force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will impact the far western Guatemala offshore waters through Fri night. A return to offshore gap winds is expected across the waters N of 10N later tonight through the weekend, with fresh to strong NE to E winds expected across the Papagayo region Fri night through early Sun, as high pressure builds across the NW Caribbean and northern Central America. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail. Looking ahead, cross equatorial SW swell moving into the regional waters is forecast to increase seas to 8 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1020 mb high pressure center located near 29N123W dominates most of the N waters N of 15N and W of 110W. A light to gentle anticyclonic flow is seen under the influence of this system. A dissipating frontal boundary is over the far NW waters while a cold front is just behind it crossing near 30N140W. Fresh to strong SW winds are ahead of the front covering the forecast waters N of 28N and W of 130W. Seas there are 9 to 11 ft in NW swell. This swell event is propagating across much of the waters N of 25N W of 120W with seas of 8 to 10 ft. Gentle to moderate NE to E prevail between 10N and 20N W of 110W. For the forecast, the high pressure will drift SW and weaken slightly, ahead of a cold front moving across the N waters. The front will reach from 30N133W to 26N140W by early Fri afternoon, and from 30N125W to 25N140W by early Sat afternoon while weakening. The fresh to strong winds ahead of the front will diminish to 20 kt or less by Fri night. Seas 8 to 11 ft in NW swell that follow the front will subside to less than 8 ft by late Sat. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are expected. $$ Stripling