000 AXPZ20 KNHC 192157 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Nov 19 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A gap wind event will develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on Wed following a strong cold front that will progress southeastward through Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico. The tightening pressure gradient between building high pressure over Mexico and low pressure off the southwestern coast of Mexico will support strong N winds by Wed afternoon with gale force winds quickly following by Wed evening. Rough seas will occur across the Gulf of Tehuantepec late Wed through this weekend, with very rough seas likely in the area of strongest wind. Seas will peak around 15 ft Thu through Thu night. Gale force winds will end early Sat morning with strong winds ending by early Sun morning. Seas will fall below 12 ft by Sat afternoon and below 8 ft by Sat night. For more details, please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 15N92W to 08N119W to 07N134W. The ITCZ extends from 07N134W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 17N between 91W and 117W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 111W and 118W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on the upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale event. High pressure extends across the Baja California offshore waters. Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail across the Baja California offshore waters with seas 8 to 12 ft, with the highest near 30N120W. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas are observed across the Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate winds are occurring in the southwest and southern Mexico offshore waters. There is an area with fresh to strong winds off the Oaxaca and Guerrero offshores associated with strong convection near the monsoon trough. Seas range 6 to 11 ft in this area, with the highest seas near the strongest winds. For the forecast, gale-force winds are expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Wed evening through Sat morning, with rough to very rough seas during this time. Seas will peak around 15 ft Thu through Thu night. Conditions will improve by Sat afternoon. Meanwhile, rough seas occurring in the southern Mexico offshore waters will subside by Wed. A long- period N to NW swell moving across the Baja California offshore waters will continue to bring rough seas offshore of Baja California for areas north of 18N through Wed morning. Seas to 12 ft will subside by this evening. This set of swell will decay completely by Thu. Another long-period swell event will move across the Baja California Norte waters on Thu and subside by Fri, bringing 8 to 9 ft seas. Fresh to locally strong NW winds will pulse in the central and southern Gulf of California tonight through Thu. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to locally moderate SW winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are occurring over the Central America offshore waters. Gentle S to SW winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted across the South American offshore waters. For the forecast, gentle to moderate SW to W winds and slight to moderate seas are expected across the Central and South American offshore waters through this weekend. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and very rough seas associated with a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event are forecast to affect the far western Guatemala offshore waters early Thu through Fri. Winds are also expected to pulse fresh to strong in the Gulf of Papagayo Fri night through the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Ridging dominates the basin associated with a a 1024 mb high centered north of the area near 31N156W. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are occurring along the periphery of the ridge across all areas north of the monsoon trough. Light to gentle winds are noted N of 25N underneath the high pressure. A long- period swell event bringing seas 8 to 12 ft are noted N of 24N associated with an old cold front. Seas of 8 to 11 ft are noted offshore southwestern Mexico and areas westward to 140W from 05N to 20N. South of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate SE to SW winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are occurring. For the forecast, rough seas will propagate southward to north of 13N through Thu, merging with the swell along the monsoon trough. Those seas will subside completely by Sat. Another set of N swell will move into the forecast waters Wed through the weekend. Looking ahead, rough seas generated by the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will move across the high seas waters W of 97W Thu night into Sun. $$ AReinhart