000 AXPZ20 KNHC 191554 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Nov 19 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A gap wind event will develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on Wed following a strong cold front that will progress southeastward through Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico. The tightening pressure gradient between building high pressure over Mexico and low pressure off the southwestern coast of Mexico will support strong N winds by Wed afternoon with gale force winds quickly following by Wed evening. Rough seas will occur across the Gulf of Tehuantepec late Wed through this weekend, with very rough seas likely in the area of strongest wind. Seas will peak around 15 ft Wed night into Thu morning. Gale force winds will end by Sat morning with strong winds ending by early Sun morning. Seas will fall below 12 ft by Sat afternoon and below 8 ft by Sat night. For more details, please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 12N121W to 09N120W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 16N between 91W and 109W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 113W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on the upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale event. A dying cold front extends from 29N112W to 25N118W in the northern Baja California offshore waters. Moderate to fresh winds follow the front with 8 to 12 ft seas. Moderate to locally fresh winds are ahead of the front with 6 to 8 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas are observed across the northern Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate winds are occurring in the southwest and southern Mexico offshore waters with locally fresh winds off the Oaxaca and Guerrero offshores associated with strong convection near the monsoon trough. Seas range 5 to 8 ft in this area. For the forecast, gale-force winds are expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Wed evening through Sat morning, with rough to very rough seas during this time. Seas will peak around 15 ft Wed night into Thu morning. Conditions will improve by Sat afternoon. Meanwhile, rough seas occurring in the southern Mexico offshore waters will subside by Wed. Another long- period N to NW swell associated with a dying cold front across the Baja California offshore waters will promote rough seas offshore of Baja California for areas north of 24N by this afternoon, and north of 18N by Wed morning. Seas to 12 ft can be expected north of Punta Eugenia this morning before subsiding below 12 ft this afternoon. This set of swell will decay completely by Thu. Fresh to strong NW winds will be possible early this morning over the southern Gulf of California, with fresh to locally strong NW winds expanding in the central Gulf tonight into Fri. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate SW winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are occurring over the Central America offshore waters. Gentle to locally moderate S to SW winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted across the South American offshore waters. For the forecast, gentle to moderate SW to W winds and slight to moderate seas are expected across the Central and South American offshore waters through this weekend. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and very rough seas associated with a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event are forecast to affect the far western Guatemala offshore waters Thu through Fri. Winds are also expected to pulse fresh to strong in the Gulf of Papagayo Fri night through the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A dying cold front extends from 29N112W to 25N125W with a trough extending along the tail end of the front to 30N139W. Moderate to locally fresh winds and 8 to 12 ft seas follow the front. Elsewhere, ridging dominates the basin, associated with a a 1024 mb high centered north of the area near 31N134W. Fresh NE winds are occurring along the periphery of the ridge across all areas north of the monsoon trough. Seas of 8 to 10 ft are noted offshore of Baja California and southwestern Mexico, and areas westward to 140W from 05N to 20N. South of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate SE to SW winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are occurring. For the forecast, the dying cold front will diminish today. Rough seas will expand to areas north of 24N by this afternoon, and north of 18N by Wed morning. Seas in this region will slowly diminish through Thu. Another set of N swell will move into the forecast waters Wed into Fri. Looking ahead, rough seas generated by the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will move across the high seas waters W of 97W Thu night into Sun. $$ AReinhart