000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190939
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Nov 19 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A gap wind event will develop
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on Wed following a strong cold front 
that will progress southeastward through Mexico and the Gulf of 
Mexico. The tightening pressure gradient between building high 
pressure over Mexico and low pressure off the southwestern coast 
of Mexico will then support strong N winds by Wed morning, and 
gale force, to locally severe gales at times Wed afternoon into 
Sat. Rough seas will occur across the Gulf of Tehuantepec late 
Wed through this weekend, with very rough seas likely in the area
of strongest wind. Winds and seas are forecast to diminish for 
the second half of the weekend. 

For more details, please read the latest NWS High Seas 
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website 
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 15N93W to a 1010 mb low near
11N115W to 08N135W. The ITCZ then extends from 08N135W to beyond
07N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring
from 12N to 15N east of 93W and from 10N to 14N between 98W and 
108W. Scattered moderate to locally strong convection is noted 
from 07N to 12N between 112W and 120W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on 
the upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale event.

A cold front extends from 32N114W to 27N120W to 28N134W over 
northern Baja California into the offshore waters. Recent 
scatterometer satellite data show fresh NW winds and rough seas 
are occurring behind the front. Moderate to fresh NW winds and 
slight seas are noted across the rest of the Baja California 
offshore waters. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas are 
observed across the northern Gulf of California. Farther south, a
1008 mb low is centered near 19N104W, and fresh NW winds are 
occurring near and to the north of the low, including areas 
surrounding Baja California Sur. Seas of 6 to 9 ft are occurring 
in the aforementioned region. Meanwhile, moderate to locally 
fresh SW winds are noted south of the monsoon trough with 
associated seas of 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast, rough seas offshore of southwestern Mexico 
will subside today. Another long-period N to NW swell associated
with the cold front will promote rough seas offshore of Baja 
California for areas north of 24N by this afternoon, and north of
18N by Wed morning. Seas to 12 ft can be expected north of Punta
Eugenia this morning before falling below 12 ft this afternoon. 
This set of swell will decay completely by Thu. Fresh to strong 
NW winds will be possible early this morning over the southern 
Gulf of California, with fresh to locally strong NW winds 
expanding in the central Gulf tonight into Fri. Looking ahead, 
gale-force winds will impact the Gulf of Tehuantepec Wed into 
Sat.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate SW winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are occurring offshore 
of Guatemala through Nicaragua. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds
and seas of 3 to 6 ft are noted across the rest of the Central 
and South American offshore waters.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate SW to W winds and slight to
moderate seas are expected across the Central and South American
offshore waters through this weekend. A gale gap wind event will
impact the Gulf of Tehuantepec Wed into this weekend. Fresh to 
strong N to NE winds and very rough seas associated with this 
event are forecast to affect the far western Guatemala offshore 
waters Thu through Fri. Winds may also become fresh to strong in 
the Gulf of Papagayo at times Fri night through the weekend. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front extends from 32N114W to 27N120W to 28N134W over 
northern Baja California into the offshore waters. Fresh to 
strong NE winds are occurring along and behind this front, and 
seas are building to 8 to 10 ft. Elsewhere, ridging dominates the
basin, associated with a a 1026 mb high centered north of the 
area near 34N132W. Fresh NE winds are occurring along the 
periphery of the ridge across all areas north of the monsoon 
trough. Seas of 8 to 10 ft are noted offshore of Baja California 
and southwestern Mexico, and areas westward to 140W from 05N to 
20N. South of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate SE to SW 
winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are occurring.

For the forecast, the cold front will progress southward to near
22N this morning before diminishing. Fresh to locally strong 
winds can be expected along and behind the front. Rough seas will
expand to areas north of 24N by this afternoon, and north 
of 18N by Wed morning. Seas in this region will slowly diminish 
through Thu. Another set of N swell will move into the forecast 
waters Wed into Fri. Looking ahead, rough seas generated by the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will move across the high seas
waters W of 97W Thu night into Sun.

$$
ADAMS