000 AXPZ20 KNHC 162205 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Nov 16 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2150 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Eastern Pacific Swell Event: Long period NW swell continues to propagate through the NE forecast waters building seas to the range of 10-13 ft N of 20N between 113W-128W. This set of swell will gradually subside through Sun, with seas subsiding below 12 ft. Another set of long NW swell is forecast to enter the offshore and adjacent waters N of Punta Eugenia with seas building from 10-15 ft Mon night and subsiding below 12 ft Tue evening. For more details, please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N97W to low pressure of 1008 mb near 15N108W to low pressure of 1010 mb near 11N117W to low pressure of 1012 mb near 07N132W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 10N to 20N between 105W and 115W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 14N between 115W and 123W, from 05N to 10N between 126W and 133W, and from 06N to 10N W of 137W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong high pressure and associated ridging prevail across the Baja California Peninsula waters. The related gradient supports moderate to fresh NW winds offshore Baja California with 8-12 ft seas N of Cabo San Lucas, highest N of Cabo San Lazaro. Gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas are along the Gulf of California. Fresh to locally strong N to NW winds extends downwind of the Gulf of Tehuantepec to the Guatemala offshore waters with moderate seas to 6 ft. Gentle to locally moderate winds and 5-7 ft seas in NW swell dominate the remainder of the SW Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, a ridge will remain in place across the offshore waters of Baja California through the middle of the week, however it will weaken slightly on Mon, thus resulting in gentle to moderate NW winds and gradually subsiding seas to 9 ft over the Baja California Sur offshore waters. Looking ahead, a new set of NW swell will reach the waters N of Punta Eugenia with seas to 15 ft late Mon into Tue evening when seas will subside below 12 ft. Locally strong winds in the Tehuantepec region will diminish to fresh speeds tonight and continue through Mon. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh SW winds are ongoing across the Nicaragua offshore waters with 5-6 ft seas in NW swell. Moderate to fresh NW winds and moderate seas to 6 ft are across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador under the influence of the gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, winds are gentle to locally moderate from the SW and seas are slight in SW swell. Scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms associated with Tropical Storm Sara located in the NW Caribbean continue to affect the offshore waters of Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua. For the forecast, moderate to fresh SW winds along the SW periphery of the outer cyclonic circulation related to Tropical Storm Sara that is located in the NW Caribbean near the northern coast of Honduras along with moderate seas are expected over the offshore waters from El Salvador to northern Costa Rica, including the Papagayo region through Sun. Gentle to moderate winds along with moderate seas are expected elsewhere, except between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands where winds will remain mostly light. Active weather will continue offshore Guatemala and El Salvador through the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features sections for details about large swell propagating through the NE forecast waters. A tight pressure gradient related to a strong high pressure center of 1036 mb that is located well NW of the discussion area near 34N145W supports a large area of fresh to strong NE to E winds from 08N to 25N and W of 122W as indicated by recent scatterometer data. Three low pressure centers remain along the monsoon trough. Their location positions are stated above under the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section. South of the monsoon trough, winds are gentle to moderate from the SW and seas are 7-8 ft. For the forecast, the high pressure will move slight SE and will be reinforcing by another strong high pressure late on Sun. As a result, fresh to strong winds will continue to affect most of the waters N of 10N and W of 110W this weekend. Large and long period NW swell will continue to propagate across the forecast region. Wave heights to 14 ft can be expected north of 20N through tonight. Seas of 12-14 ft will dominate the west-central waters tonight in a mix of NW swell and wind waves. Seas are expected to subside below 12 ft by Sun evening. At that time, seas in excess of 8 ft are forecast to cover much of the waters N of 07N and W of 105W. $$ Ramos