966 AXPZ20 KNHC 161556 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Nov 16 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Eastern Pacific Swell Event: A reinforcing set of long period NW swell is propagating through the NE forecast waters building seas to the range of 10-14 ft N of 16N between 113W-132W. This set of swell will gradually subside through Sun, with seas subsiding below 12 ft. An area of seas in the 10-14 ft range will persist across the west-central waters, mainly from 12N to 25N W of 128W where the northerly swell will mix with shorter-period NE to E waves generated by the fresh to near gale force NE to E trades. Combined seas in excess of 8 ft are expected to dominate mainly the waters north of 05N and west of about 104W by late Sun. For more details, please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N97W to low pressure of 1007 mb near 15N108W to low pressure of 1008 mb near 11N117W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 10N to 19N between 105W and 116W, from 08N to 11N between 117W and 123W, and from 05N to 10N between 127W and 134W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Broad high pressure over these waters is associated to a strong high pressure center of 1035 mb that is centered well to the NW of the area. The related gradient supports moderate to fresh NW winds offshore Baja California. Seas over waters N of Cabo San Lucas are 8-12 ft in NW swell, except for higher seas to 13 ft N of Punta Eugenia. Moderate to fresh W to NW winds are over the northern Gulf of California while light to gentle variable winds are over the southern half of the Gulf of California. Seas are 3-5 ft over the Gulf, except for lower seas of 3-5 ft over the southern part of the Gulf. A N to S swath of 20-25 kt N to NW winds extends downwind of the Gulf of Tehuantepec to near 12N94W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft with these winds. Gentle to locally moderate winds and 5-7 ft seas in NW swell dominate the remainder of the SW Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, a ridge will remain in place across the offshore waters of Baja California through the weekend producing moderate to fresh NW winds. Large NW swell will continue to propagate through the waters off Baja California reaching the Revillagigedo Islands by this evening. On Sun, seas of 8 to 11 ft will continue to affect the offshore waters of Baja California. Looking ahead, additional pulses of NW swell will reach the waters N of Punta Eugenia late Mon into Tue. Fresh to strong winds will continue in the Tehuantepec region through late tonight. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh SW winds are ongoing across the Nicaragua offshore waters with 5-7 ft seas in mixed NW and SE swell. Moderate to fresh NW winds and moderate seas to 7 ft are across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador under the influence of the gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, winds are gentle to locally moderate from the SW and seas are moderate in mixed NW and SW swell. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are evident over the offshore waters of Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua. This activity is on the outer fringes of the moisture envelop that surrounds Tropical Storm Sara located in the NW Caribbean along the coast of Honduras. For the forecast, moderate to fresh SW winds along the SW periphery of the outer cyclonic circulation related to Tropical Storm Sara that is located in the NW Caribbean near the northern coast of Honduras along with moderate seas are expected over the offshore waters from El Salvador to northern Costa Rica, including the Papagayo region through Sun. Gentle to moderate winds along with moderate seas are expected elsewhere, except between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands where winds will remain mostly light. Farther north, large northerly swell related to a gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue to impact the outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through today. Active weather will continue offshore Guatemala and El Salvador through the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features sections for details about large swell propagating through the NE forecast waters. A tight pressure gradient related to a strong high pressure center of 1035 mb that is located well NW of the discussion area near 35N145W supports a large area of fresh to strong northerly winds across the waters N of 16N between 113W-132W. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are also noted N of the monsoon trough to 27N and W of 132W due to the pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower pressure found in the vicinity of the monsoon trough. Two low pressure centers remain along the monsoon trough. Their location positions are stated above under the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section. For the forecast, the high pressure will move slight SE and will be reinforcing by another strong high pressure late on Sun. As a result, fresh to strong winds will continue to affect most of the waters N of 10N and W of 110W this weekend. Large and long period NW swell will continue to propagate across the forecast region. Wave heights to 14 ft can be expected north of 20N through tonight. Seas of 12-14 ft will dominate the west-central waters today in a mix of NW swell and wind waves. Seas are expected to subside below 12 ft by Sun evening. At that time, seas in excess of 8 ft are forecast to cover much of the waters N of 07N and W of 105W. $$ Ramos