000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160359
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Nov 16 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Eastern Pacific Swell Event: A reinforcing set of long period NW
swell is propagating through the north waters building seas to 
12 to 14 ft N of 20N and W of 120W. This set of swell follows
in the wake of recently dissipated cold front. The reinforced NW
swell will continue to propagate across the waters N of 10N and 
W of 115W tonight. Seas will subside below 12 ft north of 20N by
Sun morning, but an area of seas in the 12 to 14 ft range will 
persist across the west-central waters, mainly from 12N to 20N W
of 135W where the NW swell will mix with shorter-period NE waves
associated with the fresh to strong NE trades. Combined seas in 
excess of 8 ft are expected to dominate mainly the waters north 
of 05N and west of about 104W by late Sun. 

For more details, please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website 
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 12N93W to 09N99W to low 
pressure of 1008 mb near 13N109W to low pressure of 1009 mb near
11N118W to low pressure of 1010 mb near 08N125W to low pressure 
of 1010 mb near 08N130W and to 08N136W, where it transitions to 
the ITCZ to 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is within 60 nm N of the trough between 116W-117W. 
Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm S of the trough 
between 112W-115W, and within 30 nm N of the trough and ITCZ 
between 135W-139W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Broad high pressure over these waters is associated to a strong 
high pressure center of 1035 mb that is centered well to the
NW of the area. The related gradient supports moderate to fresh 
NW winds offshore Baja California, including the Sebastian
Vizcaino Bay. Seas over waters N of Cabo San Lazaro are 8-12 ft 
in NW swell, except for higher seas in the range of 10-14 ft N of
Punta Eugenia. Moderate to fresh W to NW winds are over the 
northern Gulf of California while light to gentle W to NW are 
over the central section of the Gulf of California and light 
and variable winds are over the southern portion. Seas are 
4-6 ft over the northern portion of the Gulf, 3-5 ft over the
central portion and 3 ft or less over the southern portion.
Latest ASCAT satellite data passes show N to S swath of 20-30 kt 
N winds extending downwind of the Gulf of Tehuantepec to near 
12N96W. Seas are 8 to 11 ft within these winds. Light to gentle 
winds dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters with 
seas of 4 to 6 ft in mixed SW and NW swell.

For the forecast, A high pressure ridge will remain in place 
across the offshore waters of Baja California this upcoming 
weekend producing moderate to fresh NW winds. Large NW swell will
continue to propagate through the waters off Baja California 
tonight, reaching Clarion Island by Sat morning, and the 
Revillagigedo Islands by Sat evening. On Sun, seas of 8 to 11 ft 
will continue to affect the offshore waters of Baja California. 
Looking ahead, additional pulses of NW swell will reach the 
waters N of Punta Eugenia late Mon into Tue. Fresh to strong 
winds will persist in the Tehuantepec region through Sat. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate southerly winds are observed across the most
of offshore waters, with the exception of moderate to fresh SW
winds in the Papagayo area. Seas generated by the gap wind event
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec are propagating across outer offshore
waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. Elsewhere, seas are generally
in the 3 to 5 ft range due to primarily long-period S to SW 
swell across the region.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh SW winds on the SW periphery
of the outer cyclonic circulation related to Tropical Storm Sara
that is located in the western Caribbean near the northern coast
of Honduras along with moderate seas are expected over the 
offshore waters from El Salvador to northern Costa Rica, 
including the Papagayo region through Sun. These winds will be 
associated with the outer cyclonic circulation of T.S. Sara 
currently located in the NW Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds 
are moderate seas are expected elsewhere, except between Ecuador 
and the Galapagos Islands where winds will remain mostly light. 
Farther north, large northerly swell related to a gap wind event 
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue to impact the outer 
offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador into Sat. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features sections for details about
large swell propagating through the NE forecast waters.

A tight pressure gradient related to a strong high pressure
center of 1035 mb that is located well NW of the discussion 
area near 36N145W supports a large area of fresh to strong
northerly winds across the waters N of 26N and W of 110W. Fresh 
to strong NE to E winds are also noted N of the monsoon trough to
29N and W of 132W due to the pressure gradient between the high 
pressure and relatively lower pressure found in the vicinity of 
the monsoon trough. Multiple low pressure centers remain along 
the monsoon trough. See above under ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section 
for low pressure positions. Scattered to numerous showers and 
thunderstorms are noted near these systems, especially in the 
vicinity of the low pressure located near 13N109W. Latest ASCAT 
satellite pass over this low shows fresh to strong winds within 
90 nm in the SE quadrant. Seas are 8-10 ft with these winds.

For the forecast, the high pressure will move slight SE and will
be reinforcing by another strong high pressure late on Sun. As a
result, fresh to strong winds will continue to affect most of the
waters N of 10N and W of 110W this weekend. Large and long period
NW swell will continue to propagate across the forecast region. 
Wave heights to 14 ft can be expected north of 20N through at 
tonight. Seas of 12 to 14 ft will dominate the west-central waters
on Sat in a mix of NW swell and wind waves. Seas are expected to
subside below 12 ft by Sun evening. At that time, seas in excess
of 8 ft are forecast to cover much of the waters N of 07N and W 
of 105W.

$$
Aguirre