834 AXPZ20 KNHC 152141 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Nov 15 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Eastern Pacific Swell Event: A reinforcing set of long period NW swell is propagating through the north waters, building seas to 12 to 14 ft N of 20N and W of 120W. This swell event follows a dissipating cold front that extends across the central Gulf of California to 22N120W to 21N130W. The reinforced NW swell will continue to propagate across the waters N of 10N and W of 115W by tonight. Seas will subside below 12 ft north of 20N by Sun morning, but an area of seas in the 12 to 14 ft range will persist across the west-central waters, particularly from 12N to 20N W of 135W where the NW swell will mix with shorter-period NE waves associated with the fresh to strong NE trade wind flow. Combined seas in excess of 8 ft are expected to dominate mainly the waters north of 05N and west of 105W by late Sun. For more details, please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 14N90W to 08N98W to low pressure of 1008 near 13N109W to low pressure of 1010 mb near 11N118W to low pressure of 1010 mb near 09N130.5W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection can be found from 10N to 13N between 86W and 91W...from 09N to 13N between 101W and 108W, and from 11N to 17N between 108W AND 113W. A cluster of moderate to strong convection is noted within 90 nm SW quadrant of the low pressure located near 13N109W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong high pressure of 1037 mb located NW of area near 36N145W extends a ridge SE across the offshore waters of Baja California. This system supports moderate to fresh NW winds across the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro, including the Sebastian Vizcaino Bay. In this area, seas are 8 to 13 ft in NW swell, highest N of Punta Eugenia. Gentle to moderate winds are noted S of Cabo San Lazaro with seas of 5 to 7 ft. A dissipating cold front is analyzed across the central Gulf of California, crossing Baja California Sur to near 21N130N. Moderate to fresh N winds are noted across the northern Gulf of California in the wake of the front. Farther S, winds have diminished below gale force in the Tehuantepec region. A recent scatterometer pass shows a plume of northerly winds in the 20 to 30 kt range extending downwind of the Gulf of Tehuantepec to about 12N96W. Seas are 8 to 11 ft within these winds, with seas in excess of 8 ft affecting the waters from 10N to 13N between 94W and 96W. Light to gentle winds dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters with seas of 4 to 6 ft in mixed SW and Nw swell. For the forecast, a ridge will remain in place across the offshore waters of Baja California this upcoming weekend producing moderate to fresh NW winds. The NW swell event will continue to propagate through the waters off Baja California tonight, reaching Clarion Island by Sat morning, and the Revillagigedo Islands by Sat evening. On Sun, seas of 8 to 11 ft will continue to affect the offshore waters of Baja California. Looking ahead, additional pulses of NW swell will reach the waters N of Punta Eugenia late Mon into Tue. Fresh to strong winds will persist in the Tehuantepec region through Sat. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate southerly winds are observed across the most of offshore waters, with the exception of moderate to fresh SW winds in the Papagayo area. Seas generated by the gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec are propagating across outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. Elsewhere, seas are generally in the 3 to 5 ft range due to primarily SW swell across the region. For the forecast, moderate to fresh SW winds and moderate seas are predicted from El Salvador through northern Costa Rica, including the Papagayo region through Sun. These winds will be associated with the outer cyclonic circulation of T.S. Sara currently located in the NW Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds are moderate seas are expected elsewhere, except between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands where winds will remain mostly light. Farther north, large northerly swell related to a gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue to impact the outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador tonight into Sat. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features sections for details about large swell propagating through the northern forecast waters. Strong high pressure of 1037 mb located near 36N145W supports a large area of fresh to strong N to NE winds across the waters N of 20N and W of 110W. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are also noted N of the monsoon trough to 20N and W of 130W due to the pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressures in the vicinity of the monsoon trough. A dissipating cold front extends from 26N112W to 21N130W. Long period NW swell follows the front building seas up to 14 ft. Multiple low pressure centers remain along the monsoon trough. See above under ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section for low pressure positions. Increasing showers and thunderstorms are noted near these systems, especially in the vicinity of the low pressure located near 13N109W. In addition, fresh to strong winds are in its SE quadrant as noted in satellite derived wind data. For the forecast, the high pressure will move slight SE and will be reinforcing by another strong high pressure late on Sun. As a result, fresh to strong winds will continue to affect most of the waters N of 10N and W of 110W this weekend. Large and long period NW swell will continue to propagate across the forecast region. Wave heights to 14 ft can be expected north of 20N through at tonight. Seas of 12 to 14 ft will dominate the west-central waters on Sat in a mix of NW swell and wind waves. Seas are expected to subside below 12 ft by Sun evening. At that time, seas in excess of 8 ft are forecast to cover much of the waters N of 07N and W of 105W. $$ GR