000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151601
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Nov 15 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Minimal gale force winds are
ongoing in the Tehuantepec region as high pressure continues to 
surge southward along the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre 
Mountains in Mexico behind a cold front moving across the Gulf of
Mexico. Seas with these are expected to peak to around 12 ft
this morning, with the plume of seas exceeding 8 ft reaching as 
far south as 10N today. Winds will lower to below gale force by 
early this afternoon, with fresh to strong winds persisting 
through Sat morning. 

Eastern Pacific Swell Event: Large, long-period NW swell of 8 to
11 ft is impacting most of the region north of 10N west of 115W.
A reinforcing set of NW swell is propagating through the north 
waters, building seas to 12 to 14 ft N of 20N and W of 120W. This
swell set follows a cold front that extends from 30N114W to 
22N130W to 22N140W. The reinforced NW swell will continue to 
propagate across the waters N of 20N and W of 115W today. Seas 
will subside north of 25N by Sat, but 12 to 14 ft seas will 
persist from 15N to 20N west of 130W by Sat evening, where the NW
swell will mix with shorter-period NE waves associated with the 
fresh to strong NE trade wind flow. Combined seas in excess of 8 
ft are expected mainly north of 05N and west of 105W into early 
next week.

For more details, please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website 
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 14N90W to 10N97W to low 
pressure of 1009 near 13N109W to low pressure of 1011 mb near 
12N118W to low pressure of 1009 mb near 09N130W to 08N140W. 
Scattered strong convection is within 30 nm of the trough 
between 110W-112W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection can be found from 11N to 13N between 86W and 91W, 
from 09N to 13N between 101W and 106W, and from 11N to 17N 
between 106W AND 117W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for details on an ongoing
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning.

A broad area of fall/winter-type strong high pressure is building
over the eastern Pacific region behind and across the southern 
portion of a cold front that extends from 30N114W to 22N130W to
22N140W. The front extends from a 1007 mb low pressure located
over the northern Gulf of California. Fresh to Strong SW winds 
are in the SE part of the low. Light to gentle NW winds are over 
the offshore waters of Baja California Sur south of Cabo Sab 
Lazaro, while mostly fresh NW winds are north of that location. 
Seas of 8 to 12ft in NW swell are impacting the offshore waters N
of PUnta Eugenia. Seas of 8 to 10 ft area reaching the outer 
offshore waters between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia. Light 
to gentle winds dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore 
waters with seas of 4 to 6 ft in mixed NW and SW swell, with the 
exception of 7 to 8 ft in NW swell in the vicinity of the 
REvillagigedo Islands.

For the forecast, a Gale Warning will remain in effect until 
early this afternoon for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The gale winds 
are producing rough seas. Elsewhere, large NW swell will continue
to move through the waters off Baja California through late Sat 
while slowly subsiding. The aforementioned cold front will begin
to weaken this afternoon and dissipate tonight. Expect fresh to 
strong SW to W winds in the northern Gulf of California ahead of 
the front this morning. Looking ahead, another round of reinforcing
NW swell will reach the waters off Cabo San Lazaro today, and 
the Clarion Island Sat through Sun night. The swell will 
gradually subside early next week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are offshore southern Central 
America, except for slightly higher winds of fresh speeds that 
are offshore El Salvador and northern Costa Rica. Gentle to 
moderate winds are also noted elsewhere along with seas generally
in the 3 to 5 ft range due to S to SW across the entire region.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate SW winds will increase to 
moderate to locally fresh speeds across the coastal waters from 
Panama to Nicaragua, including the Gulf of Panama through Sat, 
supported by the cyclonic circulation associated to Tropical 
Storm Sara that is located in the western Caribbean Sea. Farther 
north, large northerly swell related to a gap wind event in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue to impact the outer offshore 
waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through Sat. Elsewhere, 
gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in SW swell are 
expected. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features sections for details about
large swell propagating through the eastern Pacific waters. 

As previously mentioned, cold front is moving across the NE 
forecast waters. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and seas of 9 to 
14 ft follow the front. The front is forecast to weaken to a 
frontal trough, reaching from NW Mexico to 20N120W to 19N130W and
to 19N130W and to 17N140W by early this evening. Building high 
pressure in the wake of the front is supporting a broad area of 
fresh to strong trades from 15N to 22N W OF 130W. Seas are 8 to 
12 ft in NW swell within these winds. Multiple low pressure 
centers remain along the monsoon trough. See above under 
ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section for low pressure positions. 
Increasing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are 
near these systems. An area of fresh to strong winds is noted on 
the W semicircle of the westernmost low pressure. It will 
continue to move westward over the next couple of days. The 
eastern most low is forecast to acquire fresh to strong winds in 
its SE quadrant starting tonight.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will dissipate 
tonight as a frontal trough. Long-period NW swell behind the 
front will reinforce the existing field of swell across the 
waters ultimately extending as far as south of 05N and west of 
105W through Sun. Wave heights to 14 ft can be expected north of 
20N through at least Fri night. Fresh to strong trade winds will 
also cover the basin N of 10N and west of 110W as a broad and 
strong area of high pressure builds in the wake of the front. 

$$
GR