575 
AXPZ20 KNHC 150404
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Nov 15 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Minimal gale force winds are
ongoing in the Tehuantepec region as a high pressure continues 
to build along the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains 
in Mexico behind a cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico. 
Seas with these are expected to peak to around 12 ft tonight, 
with the plume of seas in excess of 8 ft reaching as far south as
10N by Fri. Winds will drop below gale force late Fri morning, 
with fresh to strong winds persisting through Sat morning. 

Eastern Pacific Swell Event: Large, long-period NW swell of 8 to
11 ft is impacting most of the region north of 10N west of 115W.
A reinforcing group of NW swell is now moving across the NW 
waters, building seas to 12 to 14 ft NW of a line from 30N126W 
to 25N140W. This swell event follows a cold front that extends 
from 30N118W to 26N130W. The reinforced NW swell will continue 
to propagate across the waters N of 20N and W of 115W on Fri. 
Seas will subside north of 25N by Sat, but 12 to 14 ft seas will
persist from 15N to 20N west of 130W by Sat evening, where the 
NW swell will mix with shorter-period NE waves associated with 
fresh to strong NE trade wind flow. Combined seas in excess of 8 
ft are expected mainly north of 05N and west of 105W into early 
next week.

For more details, please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website 
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 12N87W to 10N97W to 14N104W 
to low pressure of 1011 near 12N109W to low pressure of 1011 mb
near 12N118W to low pressure of 1009 mb near 09N129W to 08N140W.
Scattered strong convection is within 30 nm of the trough between 
110W-112W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 
seen within 60 nm north of the trough between 87W-89W and between 
118W-120W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north
of the trough between 137W-140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for details on a 
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning.

High pressure is building over the eastern Pacific behind a cold
front approaching Baja California from the west. This pattern is
supporting fresh NW winds over the central and southern parts 
Gulf of California this afternoon where seas are in the 3 to 5
ft range. Latest scatterometer data shows light to gentle winds 
across the offshore waters of Baja California. Seas of 8 to 9 ft 
in NW swell are impacting the outer offshore waters of the Baja 
California peninsula. Farther south, a gap wind gale event is 
ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec as described in the Special 
Features section. Light to gentle winds dominate the remainder of
the Mexican offshore waters with seas of 4 to 6 ft in mixed NW 
and SW swell. 

For the forecast, A Gale Warning will remain in effect for the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri morning. Rough seas are expected 
to build with this gap wind event starting tonight. Elsewhere, 
the large NW swell event moving through the waters off Baja 
California will reach the Revillagigedo Islands and beyond 
tonight. A cold front that is approaching Baja California Norte 
will weaken and dissipate by Fri. Expect fresh to strong SW to W 
winds in the northern Gulf of California ahead of the front into 
Fri morning. Looking ahead, another round of reinforcing NW swell
will follow the front, reaching the waters off Cabo San Lazaro 
on Fri, and the Clarion Island Sat through Sun night. The swell 
will gradually subside early next week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Persistent SW flow in the eastern Pacific region will continue to
bring a fair amount of tropical moisture across southern Central
America maintaining the risk of locally heavy rain. The monsoon 
trough is now propagating northward as it continues to interact 
with Tropical Storm that is presently in the western Caribbean. 
Available moisture is going to begin to decrease in Costa Rica 
and Panama in the coming days. The highest accumulation totals 
will occur in the Pacific Sur region of Costa Rica and the NW 
Pacific coast of Panama on Fri. This information is provided by 
the Weather Prediction Center's International desk team. Please 
refer to your national weather agency for details. Gentle to 
moderate S to SW winds are offshore southern Central America,
except for slightly higher winds of fresh speeds that are 
offshore El Salvador and northern Costa Rica. Gentle to moderate
winds are also noted elsewhere along with seas generally in the 
3 to 5 ft range due to S to SW across the entire region.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate SW winds will increase to 
moderate to locally fresh speeds across the coastal waters from 
Panama to Nicaragua, including the Gulf of Panama Fri through 
Sat, supported by the cyclonic circulation associated with 
Tropical Storm Sara that is located in the western Caribbean Sea.
Farther north, large northerly swell related to a gap wind event
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will impact the outer offshore waters
of Guatemala and El Salvador tonight through Sat. Elsewhere, 
gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in SW swell are 
expected. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features sections for details about
large swell propagating through the eastern Pacific waters. 

A cold front is moving across the NE forecast waters, and extends
from near 30N118W to 26N130W. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and 
seas of 9 to 14 ft follow the front. The front is forecast 
to weaken to a frontal trough, reaching from NW Mexico to 20N120W 
to 19N130W and to 17N140W by early Fri evening. Building high 
pressure in the wake of the front is supporting a broad area of 
fresh to strong trades from 15N to 26N W OF 135W. Seas are 8 to 
11 ft in NW swell within these winds. Multiple low pressure 
centers remain along the monsoon trough. Scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms are near these systems. An area of fresh 
to strong winds is noted on the W semicircle of the westernmost 
low pressure. It will continue to move westward over the next 
couple of days. 

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will dissipate 
during Fri night. Long-period NW swell behind the front will 
reinforce the existing field of swell across the waters 
ultimately extending as far as south of 05N and west of 105W 
through Sun. Wave heights to 14 ft can be expected north of 20N 
through at least Fri night. Fresh to strong trade winds will also
cover the basin N of 10N and west of 110W as high pressure 
builds in the wake of the front. 

$$
Aguirre