000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131558
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Nov 13 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Excessive Rainfall Risk in Southern Central America: Persistent 
SW flow in the eastern Pacific region will continue to bring
abundant tropical moisture across southern Central America. This
combined with a diffluent pattern aloft and the presence of a 
Central America Gyre (CAG) will increase the likelihood of heavy
rainfall across southern Central America through at least the
early part of the upcoming weekend. Latest model guidance 
indicates that the present moderate SW flow offshore Costa Rica 
and Panama is expected to increase toward the end of the week 
and into the upcoming weekend as a developing tropical 
disturbance meanders over the western Caribbean Sea. The abundant 
tropical moisture is forecast to provide a focus for potentially
heavy rainfall to occur in Costa Rica and in western Panama. 
This information is provided by the Weather Prediction Center's 
International desk team. Please refer to your national weather 
agency for details.

Large swell over the eastern Pacific: Long-period NW swell is
following a now dissipated cold front that moved through the
waters north of 20N over the past 24 hours. Wave heights of 10 
to 14 ft will impact the waters north of 22N through late today. 
This will be followed by a reinforcing group of NW swell with 
wave heights of 12 to 14 ft across the waters north of 20N Thu 
into Fri, with wave heights to 12 ft persisting in a combination 
of NW swell and shorter-period NE seas due to increasing trade 
wind flow from 15N to 20N west of 130W into Sat. 

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The next gap wind event is 
expected in the Gulf of Tehunatepec starting early on Thu as 
high pressure surges southward along the eastern slopes of the 
Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico. Winds are forecast to increase
to minimal gale-force speeds by Thu afternoon. Seas are forecast
to build to 12 or 13 ft with this event. Seas generated from 
this gap wind event will spread well away from the Tehuantepec 
area, with seas 8 ft or greater reaching as far south as 10N95W
by Fri afternoon. Winds are predicted to diminish below gale
force by Fri morning, but strong northerly winds will persist
through Fri night. Marine interests transiting across the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec Thu through Fri should be aware of this upcoming 
gap wind event, and take the necessary action to avoid hazardous 
marine conditions over the affected waters. 

Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from a 1010 mb low located 
offshore northern Costa Rica near 11N86W, to 1011 mb low pressure
near 14N106W, to 1010 mb low near 10N116W to 1011 mb low near
08N126W to 06N134W. The ITCZ extends from 06N134W to 1011 mb low
pressure near 06N138W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection
can be found from 10N to 16N between 86W and 110W, from 07N to
11N between 110W and 120W, and from 06N to 10N W of 137W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Large NW swell is moving through the waters off Baja California 
Norte this morning. Building high pressure west of the region is
supporting fresh NW winds off Baja California, and across the
Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate winds persist elsewhere, 
along with 4 to 6 ft combined seas primarily in NW swell. 

For the forecast, a Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. High pressure building behind a cold front moving 
across the Gulf of Mexico Thu will support minimal gale force
winds and rough seas in the Tehuantepec region Thu through Fri. 
Farther north, the large NW swell moving through the waters off 
Baja California Norte this morning will be off Cabo San Lazaro 
tonight, and reach Clarion Island by Thu morning. A cold front 
will move into Baja California Norte by late Thu, then weaken and
dissipate across Baja California Sur by late Fri. Expect fresh 
to strong SW gap winds into the northern Gulf of California ahead
of the front Thu night, becoming fresh NW winds Fri as the front
moves through the region. Looking ahead, another round of 
reinforcing NW swell will follow the front, reaching as far south
as off Cabo Corrientes by Sun.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on an
Excessive Rainfall Risk in Southern Central America.

Low pressure of 1010 mb is supporting gentle to moderate SW to W
winds and seas to 6 ft along the coasts of Costa Rica and 
western Panama. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are 
noted elsewhere. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active 
across coastal areas from Nicaragua to Guatemala. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate SW winds will persist 
across the region through early Thu, then become moderate to 
fresh off Costa Rica and western Panama by late Thu with little 
change expected through Sun night. Scattered to numerous showers 
and thunderstorms offshore Costa Rica and northern Panama are 
expected to continue through at least the end of the week. 
Farther north, large northerly swell related to a gap wind event 
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will impact the outer offshore waters
of Guatemala and El Salvador Thu night through Fri night.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features sections for details about
large swell over the eastern Pacific. 

Building high pressure over the subtropical eastern Pacific north
of 20N is supporting a broad area of moderate to fresh NE to E
winds across the region north of 10N and west of 110W. These
winds are accompanied by large NW swell described above in the
Special Features section. In addition, an earlier Jason-3 
altimeter satellite pass indicated seas to 8 ft which cover a 
region from 07N to 14N between 115W and 125W, associated with mix
of swell and shorter-period local wind wave due to fresh NE flow
along the monsoon trough, and related to a low pressure area 
that is pulsing along the monsoon trough. Moderate winds and seas
are noted elsewhere. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are near
the low pressure centers located along the monsoon trough. 

For the forecast, a cold front is approaching the area from
north-central Pacific. The front will move across the waters
north of 20N through Fri. Long-period NW swell will reinforce the
existing field of swell across the waters ultimately extending as
far as north of 05N and west of 105W through Sun. Wave heights 
to 14 ft can be expected north of 28N Thu through Sat. Fresh to 
strong trade winds will also cover the basin west of 110W as high
pressure builds in the wake of the front. The NW swell will mix 
with shorter-period wind waves from the fresh to strong NE trade 
winds to support a large area of 10 to 14 ft seas from 08N to 25N
west of 125W Sat and Sun.

$$
GR