000 AXPZ20 KNHC 122136 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Nov 12 2024 Corrected ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Excessive Rainfall Risk in Southern Central America: Persistent SW flow in the eastern Pacific region will continue to bring abundant tropical moisture across southern Central America. This combined with a diffluent pattern aloft and the presence of a Central America Gyre (CAG) will increase the likelihood of heavy rainfall across southern Central America through at least Thu. The most significant rainfall is expected to affect the Pacific coast of Costa Rica. This information is provided by the Weather Prediction Center's International desk team. Please refer to your national weather agency for details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...Corrected The monsoon trough axis extends from a 1009 mb low that is located offshore northern Costa Rica near 10N86W to 13N94W to low pressure of 1011 mb near 12N104W, to another 1011 mb low near 10N116W to low, to another 1011 mb low near 08N125W, and continues to 06N131W to yet another 1011 mb low near 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm north of the trough between 102W-110W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the trough between 113W-116W, and within 60 nm south of the between 116W-118W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... An overnight scatterometer satellite pass confirmed fresh to strong gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec related to a small and temporary area of high pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico. The scatterometer pass also indicated fresh NW winds off Baja California Norte, which are associated with high pressure building farther west following an approaching cold front. Mostly gentle to moderate NW to N winds are present elsewhere. Seas are peaking to around 7 ft in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere primarily in NW swell, except for 2 to 4 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, the weak cold front will move into the waters off Baja California and dissipate through late today. High pressure building in the wake of the front will continue to support fresh NW winds off Baja California Norte through tonight. This will be followed by large NW swell, reaching Guadalupe Island by this evening, offshore of Cabo San Lazaro by Wed night, and the Revillagigedo Islands by late Thu. A second slightly stronger front will move into the waters of Baja California Norte Fri and Sat. Reinforcing NW swell will follow the front off Baja California Norte Thu night through Fri. Farther south, the fresh to strong winds will continue over the Tehuantepec region through this afternoon then diminish. Looking ahead, a cold front moving across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico will bring additional gap winds into Gulf of Tehuantepec late Wed through Sat, reaching near-gale force with rough seas Thu through Fri. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on an Excessive Rainfall Risk in Southern Central America. A 1009 mb low pressure analyzed just west of northern Costa Rica has been supporting moderate to fresh SW to W winds and seas to 6 ft along the coasts of Costa Rica and western Panama. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are just offshore northern Costa Rica. For the forecast, moderate SW winds will persist across the region through mid week, becoming moderate to fresh off Costa Rica and western Panama by late Thu. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front extends from far southeastern California southwestward to northern Baja California and to near 28N125W, where it transitions to a frontal trough to 26N132W and to near 27N140W. Moderate to fresh NE winds follow the front per an overnight scatterometer pass, along with long-period NW to N swell producing seas of 8 to 12 ft. Moderate to fresh NE trade winds are also noted farther south from 09N to 27N and west of about 127W. Seas with these winds are in the range of 6-8 ft. Gentle to moderate winds persist elsewhere generally with seas of 4-6 ft due to mix long- period NW and SW swell. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will gradually weaken and dissipate as it moves eastward across Baja California through early this evening. NW swell with wave heights of 8 to 13 ft will cover much of the region north of 10N and west of 115W through midweek. Looking ahead, high pressure will build north of the area following a second, slightly stronger cold front moving through the waters north of 20N. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and additional large NW swell will build across the region north of 10N and east of 110W through Sat. $$ Aguirre