000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120929
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Nov 12 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Excessive Rainfall Risk in Southern Central America: Persistent 
SW flow in the eastern Pacific region will continue to bring
abundant tropical moisture across southern Central America. This
combined with a diffluent pattern aloft and the presence of a 
Central America Gyre (CAG) will increase the likelihood of heavy
rainfall across southern Central America through at least midweek.
The most significant rainfall will affect the Pacific coast of 
Costa Rica. This information is provided by the Weather 
Prediction Center's International desk team. Please refer to your
national weather agency for details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from a 1009 mb low pressure located 
off northern Costa Rica near 10N85W to 1011 mb low pressure near
12N102W to 1010 mb low pressure near 10N115W to 06N130W to
08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 
ongoing from 11N to 14N between 102W and 110W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed fresh to strong
gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, related to a small and
temporary area of high pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico.
The scatterometer pass also indicated fresh NW winds off Baja
California Norte, which are associated with high pressure
building farther west following an approaching cold front. Gentle
to moderate breezes are evident elsewhere. Seas are building to 7
ft in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere primarily
in NW swell, except for 2 to 4 ft in the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, the weak cold front will move into the waters 
off Baja California and dissipate through late today. High 
pressure building in the wake of the front will continue to support
fresh NW winds off Baja California Norte through tonight. This 
will be followed by large NW swell, reaching Guadalupe Island by 
this evening, offshore of Cabo San Lazaro by Wed night, and the 
Revillagigedo Islands by late Thu. A second slightly stronger 
front will move into the waters of Baja California Norte Fri and 
Sat. Reinforcing NW swell will follow the front off Baja 
California Norte Thu night through Fri. Farther south, the fresh
to strong winds will continue over the Tehuantepec region 
through this afternoon then diminish. Looking ahead, a cold 
front moving across the southwest Gulf of Mexico will bring 
additional gap winds into Gulf of Tehuantepec late Wed through 
Sat, reaching near-gale force with rough seas Thu and Fri.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on an
Excessive Rainfall Risk in Southern Central America.

A 1009 mb low pressure analyzed just west of northern Costa 
Rica has been supporting moderate to fresh SW to W winds and 
seas to 7 ft along the coasts of Costa Rica and western Panama,
although this is starting to diminish. Gentle to moderate winds 
and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. Scattered thunderstorms 
are noted within 90 nm of coast of Guatemala. 

For the forecast, moderate SW winds will persist across the 
region through mid week, becoming moderate to fresh off Costa 
Rica and western Panama by late Thu.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front extends from southern California near San Diego to 
26N140W. Moderate to fresh NE winds follow the front, along with
NW swell of 8 to 12 ft. Moderate to fresh NE trade winds are 
also noted farther south from 10N to 25N west of 125W, with 
mostly 5 to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate breezes persist elsewhere 
with 4 to 6 ft seas in a mix of NW and SW swell.

For the forecast, the cold front will gradually weaken and
dissipate as it moves westward into Baja California through late
today. NW swell with wave heights of 8 to 13 ft will cover much 
of the region north of 10N and west of 115W through midweek. 
Looking ahead, high pressure will build north of the area 
following a second, slightly stronger cold front moving through 
the waters north of 20N. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and 
additional large NW swell will build across the region north of 
10N and east of 110W through Sat.

$$
Christensen