833 AXPZ20 KNHC 112100 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Nov 11 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Excessive Rainfall Risk in Southern Central America: Persistent SW flow in the eastern Pacific region will continue to bring abundant tropical moisture across southern Central America. This combined with a diffluent pattern aloft and the presence of a Central America Gyre (CAG) will increase the likelihood of heavy rainfall across southern Central America through at least midweek. The most significant rainfall will affect southwestern Costa Rica. This information is provided by the Weather Prediction Center's International desk team. Please refer to your national weather agency for details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from a 1010 mb low pressure located off northern Costa Rica near 10N85W to 1011 mb low pressure near 11N115W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing from 07N to 15N and E of 107W, and from 10N to 18N and W of 122W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak ridge dominates the offshore waters of Baja California supporting light to gentle winds. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft in NW swell. Gentle to moderate NW winds are noted in the Gulf of California where seas are in the 1 to 4 ft range. Fresh to strong N winds are blowing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, light to gentle winds and moderate seas in mixed swell prevail. For the forecast, building high pressure over the eastern Pacific will support fresh NW winds off Baja California Norte through Tue night. This will be followed by large NW swell, reaching Guadalupe Island by Tue night, offshore of Cabo San Lazaro by Wed night, and the Revillagigedo Islands by late Thu. Reinforcing NW swell will follow off Baja California Norte Thu night through Fri. Farther south, fresh to strong winds will continue over the Tehuantepec region through Tue afternoon. Looking ahead, a cold front moving across the southwest Gulf of Mexico will bring additional gap winds into Gulf of Tehuantepec late Wed through Fri, reaching near-gale force with rough seas Thu and Thu night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on an Excessive Rainfall Risk in Southern Central America. A 1010 mb low pressure is analyzed just west of northern Costa Rica, supporting fresh to strong SW to W winds and seas to 7 ft along the coast. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds persist across the remainder of the offshore waters of Costa Rica and western Panama. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. Scattered thunderstorms are noted within 90 nm of coasts from Nicaragua to El Salvador. For the forecast, moderate to fresh SW to W winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft will continue to impact the offshore waters of Costa Rica and western Panama through tonight. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will persist elsewhere over the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front has entered the far NW waters, extending from 30N133W to 29N140W. Moderate to fresh NW winds and seas to 8 ft are prevailing behind the front. Another area of moderate to fresh winds is evident from 08N to 24N and W of 120W. Seas to 7 ft prevail in this area. To the SE, a band of moderate to fresh SW winds persist south and along the monsoon trough from 04N to 12N east of 95W, with 6 to 7 ft seas in SW swell. Gentle to moderate breezes prevail elsewhere across the basin, where 4 to 6 ft seas persist primarily in NW swell. For the forecast, reinforcing NW swell will enter the region tonight from the north-central Pacific, following the cold front that will move eastward across the waters north of 20N through Tue while dissipating. Wave heights of 8 to 13 ft will cover much of the region north of 10N and west of 115W through midweek. Looking ahead, high pressure will build north of the area following a second, stronger cold front moving through the waters north of 20N. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and additional large NW swell will build across the region north of 10N and east of 110W through Fri. $$ ERA