000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110912
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Nov 11 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Excessive Rainfall Risk in Southern Central America: Persistent 
SW flow in the eastern Pacific region will continue to bring
abundant tropical moisture across southern Central America. This
combined with a diffluent pattern aloft and the presence of a 
Central America Gyre (CAG) will increase the likelihood of heavy
rainfall across southern Central America through at least midweek.
The most significant rainfall will affect southwestern Costa 
Rica and northwestern Panama. This information is provided by the
Weather Prediction Center's International desk team. Please 
refer to your national weather agency for details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from a 1010 mb low pressure located
off northern Costa Rica near 10N86W to 13N95W to 1011 mb low 
pressure near 11N101W, to 1011 mb low pressure near 10N125W to 
08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 
ongoing from 11N to 13N between 87W and 89W. Scattered moderate
from 11N to 13N between 92W and 96W, and from 11N to 13N between
102W and 105W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A relatively weak ridge dominates the offshore waters of Baja
California supporting light to gentle winds. Seas are generally 
4 to 6 ft in NW swell. Gentle to moderate NW winds are noted in 
the Gulf of California where seas are in the 1 to 3 ft range. 
Fresh N winds are blowing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas of
4 to 6 ft. Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, light 
to gentle winds and moderate seas in mixed swell prevail.

For the forecast, building high pressure over the eastern 
Pacific will support fresh NW winds off Baja California Norte 
tonight through Tue night. This will be followed by large NW 
swell, reaching Guadalupe Island by Tue night, offshore of Cabo 
San Lazaro by Wed night, and the Revillagigedo Islands by late 
Thu. Reinforcing NW swell will follow off Baja California Norte 
Thu night through Fri. Farther south, moderate to fresh N winds 
are expected in the Tehuantepec today, becoming fresh to strong 
tonight. Looking ahead, a cold front moving across the southwest 
Gulf of Mexico will bring additional gap winds into Gulf of 
Tehuantepec late Wed through Fri, reaching near-gale force with 
rough seas Thu and Thu night. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on an
Excessive Rainfall Risk in Southern Central America.

A 1010 mb low pressure is analyzed just west of northern Costa 
Rica, supporting fresh to strong SW to W winds and seas to 8 ft
along the coast. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds persist across 
the remainder of the offshore waters of Costa Rica and western 
Panama. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted 
elsewhere. Scattered thunderstorms are noted within 90 nm of
coasts from Nicaragua to El Salvador. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh SW to W winds and seas of 6 
to 8 ft will continue to impact the offshore waters of Costa Rica
and western Panama through today. Gentle to moderate winds and 
moderate seas will persist elsewhere over the next several days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A band of moderate to fresh SW winds persist south and along the
monsoon trough from 05N to 12N east of 115W, with 6 to 8 ft seas
in SW swell. Farther to the northwest, NW swell of 6 to 8 ft 
cover the region northwest of a line from Baja California Norte 
to 07N130W. Shorter periods wind waves are mixing with the swell 
from 07N to 15N west of 130W, where fresh trade winds are 
ongoing. A trough along roughly 128W north of 18N is breaking up 
the subtropical ridge, supporting gentle to moderate breezes 
across elsewhere across the basin, where 4 to 6 ft seas persist 
primarily in NW swell.

For the forecast, the SW swell to 8 ft near the monsoon trough
east of 115W will subside today. Elsewhere, reinforcing NW swell
will enter the region tonight from the north-central Pacific, 
following a weak cold front that will move eastward across the 
waters north of 20N through Tue while dissipating. Wave heights 
of 8 to 13 ft will cover much of the region north of 10N and west
of 115W through midweek. Looking ahead, high pressure will build
north of the area following a second, stronger cold front moving
through the waters north of 20N. Fresh to strong NE to E winds 
and additional large NW swell will build across the region north 
of 10N and east of 110W through Fri.

$$
Christensen