000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102107
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Nov 10 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Excessive Rainfall Risk in Southern Central America: Persistent 
SW flow in the eastern Pacific region will continue to bring
abundant tropical moisture across southern Central America. This
combined with a diffluent pattern aloft and the presence of a 
Central America Gyre (CAG) will increase the likelihood of heavy
rainfall across southern Central America through at least midweek.
The most significant rainfall will affect southwestern Costa 
Rica and northwestern Panama. This information is provided by the
Weather Prediction Center's International desk team. Please 
refer to your national weather agency for details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from a 1011 mb low pressure located
just W of northern Costa Rica near 10N86W to 13N94W to 1011 mb 
low pressure near 11N101W, to 1011 mb low pressure near 11N113W 
to 10N125W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 84W and 117W, 
including in the vicinity of the low centers. Similar convective 
activity is also seen from 06N to 12N W of 135W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A relatively weak ridge dominates the offshore waters of Baja
California supporting light to gentle winds. Seas are generally 
4 to 6 ft in NW swell. Gentle to moderate NW winds are noted in 
the Gulf of California where seas are in the 1 to 3 ft range. 
Fresh N winds are blowing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas of
4 to 6 ft. Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, light 
to gentle winds and moderate seas in mixed swell prevail.

For the forecast, building high pressure over the eastern Pacific 
will support fresh NW winds off Baja California Norte Mon night
through Tue night. This will be followed by large NW swell, 
reaching Guadalupe Island by Tue night, then offshore of Cabo San
Lazaro by Wed night. Farther south, moderate to fresh N winds 
are expected in the Tehuantepec region through Tue, pulsing to
strong speeds on Mon night. Then, fresh to strong northerly 
winds and building seas are predicted across the Tehuantepec 
area Thu through Fri night as a ridge establishes across the 
eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on an
Excessive Rainfall Risk in Southern Central America.

A 1011 mb low pressure is analyzed just W of northern Costa Rica.
Fresh to strong SW to W winds and seas of 8 to 9 ft are noted in
association with this system. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds 
persist across the remainder of the offshore waters of Costa Rica
and western Panama. These winds are transporting tropical moisture
across southern Central America, now supporting scattered showers
and thunderstorms across the area. Gentle to moderate winds and 
moderate seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh SW to W winds and seas of 6 
to 8 ft will continue to impact the offshore waters of Costa Rica
and western Panama through Mon. Gentle to moderate winds and
moderate seas will persist elsewhere over the next several days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A relatively weak ridge dominates the waters north of 20N supporting
light to gentle winds between 110W and 130W, and gentle to moderate
NE winds W of 130W. Seas of 8 to 9 ft in NW swell cover the 
waters N of 18N and NW of a line from 30N125W to 18N136W based on
altimeter data. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds are noted
within about 150 nm SE semicircle of the low center located near
11N113W. Elsewhere S of the monsoon trough moderate to locally 
fresh winds prevail. 

For the forecast, the NW swell event affecting most the waters N
of 20N and W of 120W will continue to subside below 8 ft by
tonight. A more substantial group of NW swell will follow by Mon
night, with wave heights of 8 to 13 ft covering much of the 
region north of 10N and west of 115W through Thu as another swell
event reaches the forecast region. This follows a weak cold front
moving eastward across the waters north of 25N through mid week.
By Thu, a strong high pressure building in the wake of the front
will support increasing trade winds mainly west of 120W. Farther
to the southeast, the areas of fresh to strong SW flow and 
associated seas S of the monsoon trough will diminish in strength
and areal extent tonight into Mon.

$$
GR