000 AXPZ20 KNHC 091544 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Nov 9 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Excessive Rainfall Risk in Southern Central America: Persistent SW flow in the eastern Pacific region will bring rich, deep-layer moisture across southern Central America. This combined with a diffluent pattern aloft and the developing of a Central America Gyre (CAG) will support the potential for heavy rainfall across southern Central America into early next week. This weather pattern may particularly impact Costa Rica and Panama. This information is provided by the Weather Prediction Center's International desk team. Please refer to your national weather agency for details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 15N92W to 1011 mb low pressure near 10N102W, to 1011 mb low pressure near 11N113W to 09N130W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 82W and 90W, and from 07N to 11N between 100W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Low pressure persists over north-central Mexico. Along with weak ridging to the west, this pattern is supporting fresh winds over the central and southern Gulf of California, as confirmed by the most recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas may be reaching 7 or 8 ft in this area. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas persist elsewhere. For the forecast, the fresh to strong winds and associated moderate seas across the central and southern Gulf of California will diminish today as the low pressure weakens. Farther south, fresh gap winds will pulse briefly across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun night. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist elsewhere through early next week. Looking ahead, building high pressure west of the region will support fresh NW winds off Baja California Norte late Mon into Tue. This will be followed by large NW swell, reaching Guadalupe Island by Tue night, then offshore of Cabo San Lazaro by Wed night. Farther south, fresh to strong gap winds are possible across the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Wed night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on an Excessive Rainfall Risk in Southern Central America. Recent observations indicate an area of fresh to locally strong S to SW winds affecting the waters off Costa Rica and Panama where seas are in the 8 to 9 ft range with a component of SW swell. These winds are transporting abundant tropical moisture across southern Central America, supporting showers and thunderstorms within about 90 nm of the coast. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to fresh SW winds and large SW swell will continue impact the offshore waters of Panama through this afternoon, with moderate to fresh winds pulsing again across the offshore forecast waters of Costa Rica and western Panama Sun and Mon. Seas are forecast to build to 8 or 9 ft within these winds and SW swell. Mostly moderate winds and seas will persist elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Buoy and ship observations, along with recent scatterometer satellite data show mostly fresh SW flow across the tropical eastern Pacific east of 110W. Along with a component of SW swell, this pattern is supporting combined seas of 8 to 9 ft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms persist near the remnant low of Fourteen-E along the monsoon trough near 10N102W. Farther to the northwest, large NW swell is propagating into the region NW of a line from 30N132W to 25N135W to 24N140W. A trough persists across the north waters and extends from 30N129W to 21N127W. This is breaking up the subtropical ridge and allowing mainly gentle to moderate winds to persist elsewhere, with combined seas of 5 to 7 ft in a mix swell. For the forecast, the NW swell of 8 to 9 ft will continue to push to the southeast, covering an area northwest of a line from Baja California Norte to 10N140W through Sun before decaying below 8 ft. A more substantial group of NW swell will follow by Mon night, with wave heights of 8 to 13 ft covering much of the region north of 10N and west of 115W through Thu. Farther to the southeast, the fresh to strong SW flow and associated seas will diminish in strength and areal extent through Sun night. $$ GR