000 AXPZ20 KNHC 072050 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Nov 7 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1920 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The Remnants of Fourteen-E are centered near 12.6N 103.8W at 07/2100 UTC, moving east-southeast at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Peak seas are estimated to be around 12 ft near 12N106W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 210 nm in the SW semicircle of the Remnant location. The remnants are forecast to dissipate by Fri morning. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the final Fourteen-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Excessive Rainfall Risk in Southern Central America: A low level trough induced by Hurricane Rafael that is propagating westward in the Gulf of Mexico will reach NE Nicaragua this evening. As it propagates through the region, cyclonic rotation will develop off the west coast of Nicaragua tonight and will remain stalled through the forecast period. In addition, the convective ventilation will favor the increase of moisture from the Pacific over the next few days that will enhance extreme precipitation over Costa Rica. Accumulations over central Costa Rica will potentially exceed 20 inches (500 mm) by Tue. In addition, a Central American Gyre (CAG) is forecast to develop on Fri afternoon. An abundance of moisture convergence, upper level divergence, and instability will allow for high accumulations to occur, especially in southern Panama where in excess of 10 inches (250 mm) are expected by Tue. This information is provided by the Weather Prediction Center's International desk team. Please refer to your national weather agency for details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the SW Caribbean Sea to across western Nicaragua, interior El Salvador, and southern Guatemala to the Gulf of Tehuantepec near 16N94.5W. The monsoon trough resumes from just SW of the Remnants of Fourteen-E near 45N105W to low pressure near 13.5N114.5W to low pressure near 10.5N129W to low pressure near 10N135.5W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 240 nm from offshore Colombia to offshore all of Central America. Similar convection is from 11N to 13N between 97W and 101W, from 09.5N to 12N between 110W and 117W, from 09.5N to 12N between 120W and 127W, and from 08N to 11N between 135W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on the Remnants of Fourteen-E which are well offshore southwest/southern Mexico. A cold front is progressing southward through mainland Mexico. A tight pressure gradient due to the front and associated pronounced troughing near the Gulf of California and high pressure west of Baja California continues to support fresh to strong NW to N winds from the northern to the central Gulf of California, with similar winds filtering through Baja California Norte passages. Seas are 4 to 7 ft north of 26N in the Gulf of California. Mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail across the remainder of the offshore waters of Mexico. Seas of 4 to 7 ft in mixed swell dominate the open waters, with 2 to 4 ft seas in the southern Gulf of California. For the forecast, the Remnants of Fourteen-E will dissipate early Fri. Fresh to strong NW to N winds will spread southward in the Gulf of California through early Sat, filtering through Baja California passages by late tonight. Seas will build to 7 to 10 ft from the central to the southern Gulf of California by late tonight. Moderate to fresh N winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning Sat night, then pulsing to fresh to strong Sun night and beyond. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere, possibly freshening offshore Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro Mon night through Tue. Meanwhile, seas of 4 to 7 ft in the open waters are forecast to persist into early next week, building north of Cabo San Lazaro with the freshening winds Mon night into early Tue. Looking ahead, a significant and large NW swell event may arrive offshore Baja California by mid-week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on an Excessive Rainfall Risk in Southern Central America. Gentle to locally moderate winds are occurring across the Central and South American offshore waters, S to SW south of 11N and W to NW north of 11N, per recent ASCAT scatterometer data. A long-period S to SW swell is leading to seas of 6 to 8 ft offshore of Ecuador toward the Galapagos Islands. To the north, seas of 4 to 7 ft within S to SW swell are noted. For the forecast, winds will increase slightly to moderate to fresh south of 11N tonight, then pulsing to strong near Central America beginning Fri afternoon through early next week. These winds will support seas of 7 to 9 ft from mainly 02N to 09N through Sat. Seas of 4 to 7 ft will prevail elsewhere and otherwise. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere and otherwise. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on the Remnants of Fourteen-E which are well offshore southwest/southern Mexico. A trough is analyzed from 30N123W to 25N118.5W, with only gentle to moderate winds now near it per recent ASCAT scatterometer data. Otherwise, broad ridging dominates the waters north of the monsoon trough. Several weak areas of low pressure are analyzed along the monsoon trough with moderate to fresh winds on the south side of each per recent ASCAT scatterometer data. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere both north of and south of the monsoon trough. For seas, NW to N swell of 8 to 10 ft are roughly north of 24N between 120W and 131W. Seas of 8 to 11 ft are south of the monsoon trough to 08N between 100W and 125W, with mainly 6 to 8 ft seas in mixed swell across the remainder of the open waters. For the forecast, the Remnants of Fourteen-E will dissipate early Fri. The weak lows along the monsoon trough will become less defined through the end of the week with winds across the open waters west of 120W mainly gentle to moderate through Sat. Winds are forecast to increase slightly to moderate to fresh north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W thereafter into early next week as high pressure builds in across those waters in the wake of a dying cold front passing by mainly north of 30N. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh winds will be south of the monsoon trough to about the Equator through the upcoming weekend with seas of around 8 ft there. Elsewhere for seas, the NW to N swell over the N-central waters will subside through tonight. A new set of NW swell will push southeast of 30N140W early Fri into early Sat, with seas of 7 to 9 ft west of a line from 30N120W to 20N130W to 10N140W by early Sun. Those seas will decay thereafter. Looking ahead, a larger and more significant set of NW swell may impact the NW and northern waters by late Mon night, spreading across much of the waters north of the monsoon trough and west of 115W through mid-week. $$ Lewitsky