000 AXPZ20 KNHC 071528 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Nov 7 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1440 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Fourteen-E is centered near 13.2N 104.4W at 07/1500 UTC, moving east-southeast at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Peak seas are estimated to be around 11 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 240 nm in the N and SE quadrants. The depression is moving toward the east- southeast and a slightly faster southeastward motion is expected later today. The depression is forecast to dissipate on Fri, although that could occur sooner. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Fourteen-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the SW Caribbean Sea to across southern Nicaragua and along the Pacific coast from the Gulf of Fonseca near 13N88W to the Gulf of Tehuantepec near 15.5N95W, then resumes from just southwest of Tropical Depression Fourteen-E near 12N105.5W to low pressure near 12.5N117.5W to low pressure near 10N135W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 14N between 86W and 95W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 07N between 77W and 80W with isolated to widely scattered moderate convection within 120 nm either side of the monsoon trough between 110W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Depression Fourteen-E which is well offshore southwest/southern Mexico. A cold front is progressing southward through central portions of the Gulf of California, extending from mainland Mexico near 30N109W to 29N112W to Baja California Norte. Fresh to strong NW winds are preceding the front down through the central portion of the Gulf of California with similar winds filtering through Baja California Norte passages. Seas are 4 to 7 ft north of 26N in the Gulf of California, except to 8 ft north of 29.5N. Moderate to locally fresh N winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec early this morning. Mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail across the remainder of the offshore waters of Mexico. Seas of 4 to 7 ft in mixed swell dominate the open waters, except locally to 8 ft from offshore Punta Eugenia northward, with 2 to 4 ft seas in the southern Gulf of California. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Fourteen-E will move to 12.3N 103.7W this evening, and dissipate Fri morning. Fresh to strong NW to N winds will spread southward in the Gulf of California through early Sat, filtering through Baja California Sur passages by late tonight. Seas there will remain up to 8 ft spreading south with the winds through early Sat. Moderate to fresh N winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning Sat night. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere, freshening offshore Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro Mon night into early Tue. Meanwhile, seas of 4 to 7 ft in the open waters are forecast to persist into early next week, building north of Cabo San Lazaro with the freshening winds Mon night into early Tue. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to locally moderate winds are occurring across the Central and South American offshore waters, S to SW south of 11N and W north of 11N. A long-period S to SW swell is leading to seas of 6 to 8 ft offshore of Ecuador toward the Galapagos Islands. To the north, seas of 4 to 6 ft within S to SW swell are noted. For the forecast, winds will increase slightly to moderate to fresh south of 11N later today and tonight, then pulsing to strong by Fri afternoon through Sat. These winds will support seas of 7 to 9 ft from mainly 02N to 09N through Sat. Seas of 4 to 7 ft will prevail elsewhere and otherwise. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere and otherwise. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Depression Fourteen-E which is well offshore southwest/southern Mexico. A trough is analyzed from 30N122W to 26N118.5W with moderate to locally fresh winds west of it to 131W. Otherwise, broad ridging dominates the waters north of the monsoon trough. Several weak areas of low pressure are analyzed along the monsoon trough with moderate to fresh winds on the south side of each, locally strong near 12.5N115W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere both north of and south of the monsoon trough. For seas, NW to N swell of 8 to 10 ft are north of 24N between 120W and 131W. Seas of 8 to 11 ft are south of the monsoon trough to 08N between 100W and 130W with mainly 6 to 7 ft seas in mixed swell across the remainder of the open waters. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Fourteen-E will move to 12.3N 103.7W this evening, and dissipate Fri morning. The weak lows along the monsoon trough will become less defined through the end of the week with winds across the open waters west of 110W mainly gentle to moderate through Sat. Winds are forecast to increase slightly to moderate to fresh north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W thereafter into early next week as high pressure builds in across those waters. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh winds will be south of the monsoon trough to about the Equator through the upcoming weekend with seas of around 8 ft there. Elsewhere for seas, the NW to N swell over the N-central waters will subside through tonight. A new set of NW swell will push southeast of 30N140W tonight into early Sat, with seas of 7 to 9 ft west of a line from 30N125W to 20N130W to 10N140W by early Sun. Those seas will decay thereafter. Looking ahead, a very large set of NW swell may impact the NW and northern waters by early Tue. $$ Lewitsky